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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +40 pts | +85 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −3 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −31 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −5 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94d | standupman | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,929 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | RootWoot | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,068 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | logesh32 | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,549 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | Limping-Baggie-Technique | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,148 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | AnonymousPerson | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,026 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 94d |  Prexpect3 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,091 | +$34 +0.2% | 20 |
| 94d | BinaryBaron | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,807 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 94d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,988 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 94d |  Espagan | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,547 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 94d |  Gustav4 | 180-199 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,031 | +$107 +5.3% | 22 |
| 94d | Gustav4 | 200-219 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | +$44 +4.2% | 21 |
| 95d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,643 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 95d | logesh32 | 180-199 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,325 | +$200 +15% | 24 |
| 95d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,639 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 95d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,129 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 95d | Lined-Macadamia | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,308 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 95d | nole-ksum | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,043 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 95d | JustMeZ | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,030 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 95d | anon.1980.123 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,030 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 95d |  Hunter1207 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 95d | zzhzz | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,046 | +$17 +0.8% | 20 |
| 95d | suyizi | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,415 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 95d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,124 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 95d | luca88 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | buputong | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d |  stauffen | 220-239 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,650 | +$127 +4.8% | 21 |
| 95d | suifeng668 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,737 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 95d | dafei888 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,695 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 95d | pingfan666 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,491 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 95d | nbjui1 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 95d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 95d | Lined-Macadamia | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 95d | tianjiyuyunzhilu5 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $35,241 | +$46 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | CakeBake | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,130 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 95d | carboyant2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,194 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | nole-ksum | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,242 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 95d | Espagan | 220-239 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,312 | +$237 +10% | 22 |
| 95d | BinaryBaron | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,183 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 95d |  Boss72 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,029 | +$64 +0.5% | 20 |
| 96d | Bankrupt-Loser | 160-179 | BuyNo100¢ | $6,344 | +$32 +0.5% | 20 |
| 96d | pumpkincousin29 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,300 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 96d | pumpkincousin29 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 96d | Po1yBot-OZrhX2UfIz | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,401 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 96d |  lexluthror | 160-179 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,301 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 96d | Hunter1207 | 240-259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,184 | +$29 +2.5% | 20 |
| 96d | hipopatamo | 160-179 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,064 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 96d | CakeBake3 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo100¢ | $18,905 | +$95 +0.5% | 20 |
| 96d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 160-179 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | −$7 −0.7% | — |
| 96d | Boss7 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 96d | anon.1980.123 | 260-279 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,001 | +$31 +1.5% | 20 |
| 96d | nole-ksum | 260-279 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$44 +3.7% | 21 |
| 96d | nole-ksum | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,229 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 96d | standupman | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 97d | lexluthror | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 97d | qianyi2026 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,113 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 97d | beatyesterday | 160-179 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,486 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 97d | nbjui1 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 97d | luca88 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 97d | loveheng | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,833 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 7 12:00 PM ET to July 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.