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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +42 pts | +84 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −4 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −22 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −2 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 119d | Papuasus | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,442 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | Adorable-Initial | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,112 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | Traingman | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,413 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | Poiuztrewq | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,398 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | Intelligent-Tax | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $19,851 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $14,297 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,031 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | credence0918 | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,200 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 119d |  PredictionYogi | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | Houdray | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 119d |  Green.Gold2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,359 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 119d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,494 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 119d |  Gustav4 | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,958 | +$18 +0.6% | 20 |
| 119d | Gustav4 | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,330 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 119d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,998 | +$35 +1.7% | 21 |
| 119d |  Annica2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,992 | +$175 +5.9% | 22 |
| 119d | 0x1f05…ba7b | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,439 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,999 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 119d | Intelligent-Tax5 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $12,501 | +$627 +5.0% | 22 |
| 119d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,978 | +$111 +2.8% | 21 |
| 120d | Ag500k | 180-199 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,230 | +$65 +5.3% | 22 |
| 120d | Repulsive-Eyelids | 180-199 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,625 | −$104 −6.4% | — |
| 120d | PredictionYogi | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,829 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 120d | Intelligent-Tax | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $22,467 | −$22 −0.1% | — |
| 120d |  Sugarina | 180-199 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | +$56 +5.3% | 22 |
| 120d | Annica | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $27,514 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 120d |  zb8 | 200-219 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,738 | +$281 +10% | 23 |
| 120d | suntori | 180-199 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,905 | +$484 +25% | 27 |
| 120d | ShaunLee | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,507 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 120d | Hustleharder888 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,848 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 120d | ProsperIntelligence | 200-219 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,221 | +$446 +36% | 29 |
| 120d | ok2606 | 180-199 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,302 | +$559 +43% | 30 |
| 120d | Adorable-Initial3 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,095 | +$108 +1.2% | 20 |
| 120d | Joethebirria125 | 180-199 | BuyNo51¢ → 0¢ | $1,412 | −$1,412 −100% | 28 |
| 120d | Ag500k2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,556 | +$136 +5.3% | 21 |
| 120d |  upont | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,098 | +$54 +0.2% | 20 |
| 120d | mobiledanger15 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,300 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 120d | emptyecolog | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,600 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 120d | Intelligent-Tax6 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $13,345 | +$303 +2.3% | 20 |
| 120d | Jason2025 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,551 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 120d | Intelligent-Tax | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,160 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 120d | ppobb1123 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,954 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 120d | nole-ksum | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,036 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 120d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,975 | +$26 +1.3% | 20 |
| 120d | Donkolo | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 120d | suyizi | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,947 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 120d |  axelverse.sol | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 120d | Healthy-Sightseeing | 180-199 | SellYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,427 | −$1,026 −72% | — |
| 120d | Intelligent-Tax | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,362 | −$14 −0.4% | — |
| 120d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,572 | +$209 +4.6% | 21 |
| 120d | BinaryBaron | 240-259 | BuyNo100¢ | $4,076 | +$20 +0.5% | 20 |
| 121d | AlphaOracle001 | 240-259 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,791 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 121d | Healthy-Sightseeing | 180-199 | BuyYes45¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$1,353 +123% | 25 |
| 121d | SignalNotNoise001 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 121d | zb8 | 180-199 | BuyNo62¢ → 0¢ | $2,532 | −$2,532 −100% | 25 |
| 121d | YogiKimochi | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,110 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 121d | still | 220-239 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$116 +10% | 22 |
| 121d | Actual-Ladle | 140-159 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,965 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 121d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,210 | +$33 +1.0% | 20 |
| 121d | wolverine.123 | 200-219 | BuyNo62¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | +$646 +61% | 25 |
Via-Solis1,051 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 12 12:00 PM ET to June 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.