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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +39 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −36 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 117d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,035 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 117d |  Annica4 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $9,458 | +$178 +1.9% | 21 |
| 117d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,339 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 117d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,212 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 117d | Profitable-Violation | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,220 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 117d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,476 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 117d | tenorplum | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,554 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 117d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 117d |  jesterthegoose | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,223 | +$127 +2.0% | 21 |
| 117d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,832 | +$168 +1.4% | 20 |
| 117d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,076 | +$157 +1.4% | 20 |
| 117d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $19,484 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 117d | godwmaw | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,221 | +$118 +5.3% | 22 |
| 117d |  upont | 40-64 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,619 | +$128 +7.9% | 22 |
| 117d | upont | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,217 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 117d | WCWS2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 117d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,039 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 117d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,095 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 117d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,040 | +$311 +10% | 22 |
| 117d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,090 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 117d | Intelligent-Tax4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,953 | +$248 +2.5% | 20 |
| 117d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,417 | +$42 +0.7% | 20 |
| 117d | PredictionYogi2 fills | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,768 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 117d | Intelligent-Tax | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,318 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 117d | lankeleads | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,439 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 117d |  y111m11 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,139 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 118d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,085 | +$27 +0.9% | 20 |
| 118d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,092 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 118d |  Boss7 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,379 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 118d | Adorable-Initial2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,947 | +$165 +1.8% | 20 |
| 118d | Ag500k | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,497 | +$54 +2.1% | 20 |
| 118d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,656 | +$88 +1.3% | 20 |
| 118d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,070 | +$23 +1.1% | 20 |
| 119d | 0x1f05…ba7b | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,456 | +$45 +3.1% | 21 |
| 119d | lankeleads | <40 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,748 | +$358 +20% | 23 |
| 120d | Boss7 | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,365 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft8,336 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 20 12:00 PM ET to June 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.