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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 175–199 | 100% | +28 pts | +93 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <150 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150–174 | 0% | −41 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200–224 | 0% | −23 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–249 | 0% | −2 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250–274 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275–299 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–324 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325–349 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350–374 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375–399 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400–424 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425–449 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450–474 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475–499 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 490d |  Z1777 | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $14,773 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 490d | Mrhack210291 | 175–199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,089 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 490d |  Elonurmom | 175–199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,235 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 490d |  ChunkyMonky2 fills | 175–199 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,424 | −$299 −6.8% | — |
| 491d |  Gustav4 | 200–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 491d |  Comeback12345 | 175–199 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,698 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | timler | 175–199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | AZwater | 225–249 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,985 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | Tianxingjian | 175–199 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,926 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | dareign | 175–199 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,127 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | glarity | 175–199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,412 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 491d |  purpH | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,913 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 491d | AZwater3 fills | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $49,950 | −$50 −0.1% | — |
| 491d |  Prexpect2 fills | 175–199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,666 | +$35 +1.3% | 20 |
| 491d | xbsuwrkfmdl373 fills | 175–199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,418 | +$73 +0.5% | 20 |
| 491d | xbsuwrkfmdl3711 fills | 500+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $25,893 | −$142 −0.5% | — |
| 491d | krakenhall6 fills | 175–199 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,807 | −$80 −0.5% | — |
| 491d | t0n32 fills | 200–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,955 | +$124 +0.7% | 20 |
| 491d |  PredictionYogi4 fills | 200–224 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $6,725 | +$510 +7.6% | 20 |
| 491d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 200–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,014 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 491d | StopNoticing | 175–199 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | −$14 −1.1% | — |
| 491d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 225–249 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,305 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 491d |  TeflonMusk | 175–199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,780 | +$20 +0.5% | 20 |
| 491d | 0xtrading | 175–199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,316 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 491d | Gustav42 fills | 175–199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,711 | +$72 +1.5% | 20 |
| 491d | Gustav43 fills | 200–224 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,114 | +$120 +1.7% | 20 |
| 491d | Andu1122 | 175–199 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,327 | −$76 −5.7% | — |
| 491d | JUSTICEYOON | 175–199 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,941 | +$110 +3.7% | 20 |
| 491d |  ElonSpam | 175–199 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,348 | +$151 +11% | 20 |
| 491d | Derteil | 175–199 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,138 | −$162 −14% | — |
| 491d | Sandra.rachkova | 175–199 | SellNo11¢ → 0¢ | $1,579 | +$1,579 +100% | — |
| 491d |  Cookedtan2 fills | 200–224 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $9,504 | +$1,146 +12% | 20 |
| 491d | wokerjoesleeper | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,597 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 491d | wokerjoesleeper | 200–224 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | +$203 +15% | 20 |
| 491d | Cookedtan3 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,098 | +$34 +0.8% | 20 |
| 491d | cigarettes4 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,333 | +$40 +0.6% | 20 |
| 491d | cigarettes3 fills | 200–224 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $4,109 | +$822 +20% | 20 |
| 491d | krakenhall4 fills | 175–199 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $7,701 | +$2,323 +30% | 26 |
| 491d | t0n3 | 225–249 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,786 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 491d | t0n3 | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,021 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 491d | AZwater | 250–274 | SellNo>99¢ | $12,987 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | xbsuwrkfmdl373 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,288 | +$25 +0.3% | 20 |
| 491d | dareign | 175–199 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $2,209 | +$921 +42% | 20 |
| 491d | crypto911 | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,536 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 491d | ChunkyMonky2 fills | 175–199 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $3,190 | +$1,533 +48% | 20 |
| 491d | crypto911 | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,813 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 491d |  HowToBasic | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,223 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | Z17777 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $88,447 | +$700 +0.8% | 20 |
| 491d |  ChocolateSTAR2 fills | 200–224 | SellYes27¢ → 0¢ | $3,032 | +$3,032 +100% | — |
| 491d | proomptengineer | 225–249 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,167 | +$67 +3.1% | 20 |
| 491d | proomptengineer | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,167 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | t0n3 | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,579 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | Cookedtan2 fills | 250–274 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,060 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 491d | PredictionYogi | 200–224 | SellYes51¢ → 0¢ | $2,995 | +$2,995 +100% | — |
| 491d |  Mehkan22 | 175–199 | SellYes23¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | −$3,790 −341% | — |
| 491d | PredictionYogi | 175–199 | SellYes35¢ → 100¢ | $2,110 | −$3,890 −184% | — |
| 491d | Sandra.rachkova | 175–199 | BuyNo38¢ → 0¢ | $1,419 | −$1,419 −100% | 21 |
| 491d |  Debosnys | 225–249 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,186 | +$38 +3.2% | 20 |
| 491d | Dragonpheonix | 200–224 | BuyYes43¢ → 0¢ | $3,200 | −$3,200 −100% | 22 |
| 491d | Dragonpheonix | 200–224 | SellNo61¢ → 100¢ | $3,200 | −$2,009 −63% | — |
carbonite500 shares
Tendollars13 shares
Marcellusrt3 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between June 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and June 13, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 175–199 means the market gives it about 100%.