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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 475-499 | 100% | +66 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <300 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-324 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325-349 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350-374 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375-399 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-424 | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425-449 | 0% | −14 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450-474 | 0% | −51 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-524 | 0% | −10 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 525-549 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550-574 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 575-599 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-624 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 625-649 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 650+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 567d | Mekita | 475-499 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,389 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 567d | EdwardWeaver | 475-499 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,296 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 567d |  0xa8C4d45000b7976d897Ab79c21780E46faAA848 | 475-499 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,772 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 567d |  RiseAndSunny | 475-499 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,938 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 567d | HaioPei | 475-499 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,495 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 567d |  noreasapa | 475-499 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 567d | Unknw | 475-499 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,693 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | TheB4ron | 475-499 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,632 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | noreasapa | 475-499 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d |  Bertapotamous2 fills | 500-524 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,631 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 568d | astromage3 fills | 500-524 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,388 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 568d | astromage4 fills | 525-549 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,538 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | Linnnnn | 475-499 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,023 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 568d |  Prexpect2 fills | 500-524 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,544 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 568d |  CallmeEuphoria | 475-499 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,862 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | Prexpect2 fills | 475-499 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,591 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 568d | leiger | 500-524 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,924 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 568d |  Gustav42 fills | 500-524 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,468 | +$44 +0.8% | 20 |
| 568d | leiger4 fills | 525-549 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,944 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | leiger | 475-499 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,901 | +$21 +1.1% | 20 |
| 568d |  VisionInfinite | 550-574 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,053 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | Princeamir | 475-499 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,259 | −$40 −3.2% | — |
| 568d | SirDragon2 fills | 500-524 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,748 | +$309 +8.2% | 21 |
| 568d | 0xeccdededcc | 475-499 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | +$199 +16% | 20 |
| 568d |  jesterthegoose | 450-474 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 568d |  ElonSpam | 475-499 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,209 | +$391 +18% | 20 |
| 568d |  DickTurbin | 525-549 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,985 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 568d |  pepeFight | 550-574 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,496 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | Unknw | 475-499 | BuyYes43¢ → 100¢ | $1,027 | +$1,368 +133% | 20 |
| 568d | Thanatos17 | 525-549 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,030 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 568d | AlexPro2 fills | 500-524 | BuyYes65¢ → 0¢ | $3,013 | −$3,013 −100% | 20 |
| 568d | alex562 | 475-499 | BuyNo56¢ → 0¢ | $1,163 | −$1,163 −100% | 20 |
| 568d |  catasus | 500-524 | SellYes55¢ → 0¢ | $1,963 | +$1,963 +100% | — |
| 568d |  Nastasion | 550-574 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,302 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | glarity5 fills | 525-549 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,930 | +$138 +1.3% | 20 |
| 568d |  LookBehindYou | 475-499 | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$910 +90% | 20 |
| 568d | leiger2 fills | 550-574 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,622 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 568d | leiger | 450-474 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,602 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | HGCMarkets | 450-474 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,066 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | glarity | 450-474 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,568 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | catasus | 475-499 | SellYes44¢ → 100¢ | $1,894 | −$2,411 −127% | — |
| 568d |  PredictionYogi | 500-524 | BuyYes37¢ → 0¢ | $1,019 | −$1,019 −100% | 20 |
| 568d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 475-499 | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $2,768 | −$1,120 −40% | — |
| 568d |  Elonurmom | 475-499 | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | −$485 −47% | — |
| 568d | pekuluka | 475-499 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $2,008 | −$502 −25% | — |
| 568d | t00more-095 | 475-499 | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,495 | −$610 −41% | — |
| 568d |  Therealsmurf | 475-499 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,339 | +$446 +19% | 20 |
| 568d | 828 | 500-524 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,772 | +$193 +11% | 20 |
| 568d | glarity | 450-474 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,563 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | rwo | 450-474 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,357 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | RaresC | 500-524 | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,167 | −$174 −15% | — |
| 568d | triban18 | 475-499 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,235 | +$122 +9.9% | 20 |
| 568d | 0xeccdededcc | 500-524 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,219 | +$135 +11% | 20 |
| 568d | jesterthegoose2 fills | 450-474 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,992 | +$997 +33% | 20 |
| 568d |  EyesWideOpen911 | 475-499 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,392 | +$329 +14% | 20 |
| 568d | alex5622 fills | 450-474 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $4,523 | +$1,810 +40% | 20 |
| 568d | joezpeh | 450-474 | SellYes14¢ → 0¢ | $1,413 | +$1,413 +100% | — |
| 568d |  lolboy4D4 fills | 450-474 | SellYes47¢ → 0¢ | $6,912 | +$6,912 +100% | — |
| 568d | AlexPro2 fills | 450-474 | BuyNo56¢ → 100¢ | $3,268 | +$2,548 +78% | 20 |
| 568d | lolboy4D4 fills | 450-474 | BuyYes67¢ → 0¢ | $8,447 | −$8,447 −100% | 28 |
Usernombre100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between March 21, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and March 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 475-499 means the market gives it about 100%.