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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280-299 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 213d | Cipry | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,110 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | Cuddly-Accusation | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,713 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | 0xstevezilla | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,077 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 213d |  lebi4ik | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $17,441 | −$17 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 213d |  Kamenshyk22 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | krimdesemberg | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,101 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | elfistarke | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,107 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | edmin | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,007 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | Bite-Sized-Volunteering | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,243 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | ridgely | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,022 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | LazyWanker | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | darekdani | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,645 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | dudukos | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,674 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | Repulsive-Member | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,674 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | Actual-Ladle | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,907 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | OstapP | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | niceShare | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,443 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | 0xf328…2b78 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,768 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | Icannotwin | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,423 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | durantionela | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,021 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d |  kejsi | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,159 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | Strong-Effacement | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,054 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | Green-Saint | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,330 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d |  Elonurmom | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,892 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | Descuy | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,271 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | Jason2025 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,153 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d |  ElonSpam | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,850 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 214d | 0x265f…a448 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,495 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 214d |  Gabbers | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,295 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 214d |  Prexpect3 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,817 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 214d |  Annica7 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $13,028 | +$4,537 +35% | 29 |
| 214d |  Gustav42 fills | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $29,970 | −$30 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,177 | +$69 +0.8% | 20 |
| 214d | geraldhew89 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | 0xf594…3cb2 | 280-299 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,413 | −$73 −2.1% | — |
| 214d |  Dr.napol | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,918 | +$70 +1.4% | 20 |
| 214d | Green-Saint | 300-319 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,311 | +$20 +1.5% | 21 |
| 214d | forestk | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,016 | +$103 +1.5% | 20 |
| 214d | Strong-Effacement | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,084 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d |  noreasapa | 300-319 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | −$57 −5.3% | — |
| 214d |  AlexTiger | 300-319 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,150 | +$19 +1.7% | 21 |
| 214d | Jason2025 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,032 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d |  C78123 | 300-319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $7,359 | −$503 −6.8% | — |
| 214d | pauer31 | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,548 | +$31 +1.2% | 20 |
| 214d | wfimgpgs4254 | 300-319 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,058 | −$24 −2.3% | — |
| 214d |  Meow12 | 280-299 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | −$9 −0.9% | — |
| 214d | acvzdhtdj1379 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,371 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 214d | Sleepy-Shoat | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,106 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 214d | influenz.eth2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,490 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 214d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,891 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 214d |  AlmostRich | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 214d |  jesterthegoose5 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $18,910 | +$4,493 +24% | 26 |
| 214d | Perfumed-Whirlpool | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,534 | +$36 +1.0% | 20 |
| 214d |  Crypto-PM | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,447 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,434 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 214d | BuBuBlackBear | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,474 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 214d | Prexpect | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,981 | +$19 +0.2% | 20 |
| 214d | Lukewarm67 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,138 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 214d | Ashurnasirpal | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 10 12:00 PM ET to March 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 280-299 means the market gives it about 100%.