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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 216d | niceShare | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,659 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 216d | 168168168168 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,042 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 216d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,790 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 216d |  DJB. | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,828 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 216d |  stauffen | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,792 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | Personal-Digging | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,536 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | 0xd341…b73f | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,116 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 217d |  LeJoe | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,908 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | mza55 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,164 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | WCWS | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,236 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | dudukos | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,610 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,506 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | Perfumed-Whirlpool | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | 0x265f…a4482 fills | 90-114 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,121 | −$129 −6.1% | — |
| 217d |  Gabbers | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,520 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 217d |  Gustav43 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $12,876 | +$193 +1.5% | 20 |
| 217d | Gustav4 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,975 | +$16 +0.8% | 20 |
| 217d |  LinaBell🦊 | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,314 | +$12 +0.9% | 20 |
| 217d |  Prexpect | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,979 | +$33 +1.1% | 20 |
| 217d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $8,500 | +$480 +5.7% | 22 |
| 217d | Worthwhile-Crunch | 115-139 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | +$42 +4.2% | 21 |
| 217d | 50NXX | 90-114 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,025 | +$105 +5.2% | 22 |
| 217d |  Therealsmurf | 90-114 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,836 | +$97 +5.3% | 22 |
| 217d | 1681681681682 fills | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,136 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | Noted-Currency | 90-114 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,472 | +$77 +5.3% | 22 |
| 217d | Thomas666 | 90-114 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,321 | +$70 +5.3% | 22 |
| 217d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,705 | +$87 +5.1% | 22 |
| 217d | influenz.eth | 115-139 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,749 | +$112 +6.4% | 22 |
| 217d | 0xe617…f2513 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$558 +8.0% | 22 |
| 217d | 0x6234 | 90-114 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | +$100 +7.5% | 22 |
| 217d | WCWS | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,294 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | Perfumed-Whirlpool | 90-114 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$88 +8.7% | 23 |
| 217d |  YangYuxiang | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,064 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | 0x265f…a448 | 90-114 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,005 | +$495 +49% | 30 |
| 217d |  MacanBratik | 90-114 | BuyNo28¢ → 0¢ | $1,055 | −$1,055 −100% | 30 |
| 217d | tradethemarket | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,031 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 217d |  ChunkyMonky | 90-114 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | −$272 −25% | — |
| 217d |  Boss76 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,707 | +$94 +0.7% | 20 |
| 217d | Houdray | 90-114 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $2,905 | +$819 +28% | 27 |
| 217d | Boss7 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | Oval-Convection | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,922 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 217d | YangYuxiang | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 217d | HuatzTTM8 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,766 | +$93 +0.5% | 20 |
| 217d | WCWS3 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,902 | +$79 +1.3% | 20 |
| 217d | WCWS | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,994 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 217d |  abhionpoly | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,073 | +$93 +1.8% | 21 |
| 217d | Boss76 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $62,193 | +$106 +0.2% | 20 |
| 217d |  badmoshbillu | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,972 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 217d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $54,267 | +$59 +0.1% | 20 |
| 217d | influenz.eth | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,168 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 217d |  lebi4ik | 90-114 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $3,942 | +$1,547 +39% | 29 |
| 217d | influenz.eth | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,153 | +$16 +1.4% | 20 |
| 217d | Collion | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,419 | +$87 +1.4% | 20 |
| 217d | mitikohalls4 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,491 | +$145 +1.9% | 21 |
| 217d | floreshanguelito | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,152 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 217d | magdaramjattan | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,150 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 217d | gallegozandria | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,050 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 217d | 168168168168 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,133 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 217d |  godofus | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,400 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 217d | carboyant2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,524 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
nimikm1,830 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 12 12:00 PM ET to March 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.