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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 212d | TheSh1n1gam1 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,639 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 212d |  Kamenshyk22 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 212d |  FatFrumos | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,697 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | 168168168168 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | Fear-of-missing-out | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,573 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 213d |  Annica4 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $42,919 | +$209 +0.5% | 20 |
| 213d | Green-Saint | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,383 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 213d | onekey09 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $55,730 | +$56 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | BinaryBaron | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,207 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | forestk | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,215 | −$23 −0.3% | — |
| 213d |  Mei-ji | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,034 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 213d |  Sakura00 | 115-139 | SellNo100¢ | $1,335 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 213d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,957 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 213d |  Gabbers | 90-114 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,803 | −$18 −1.0% | — |
| 213d |  onchainbuda | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,384 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 213d | ManCangGangGanDaDanGan | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,963 | +$37 +0.7% | 20 |
| 213d | vetmin | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 213d | Ommamal | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,662 | +$46 +1.7% | 21 |
| 213d | forestk | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,119 | +$119 +1.7% | 21 |
| 213d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,942 | +$50 +2.6% | 21 |
| 213d |  KARMASUR | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,416 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | Oval-Convection | 90-114 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,034 | +$63 +3.1% | 21 |
| 213d | Bankrupt-Loser | 90-114 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,606 | +$50 +3.1% | 21 |
| 213d | justnotchu | 90-114 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,459 | −$79 −5.4% | — |
| 213d |  Prexpect | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,253 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | IO. | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,240 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | Green-Saint | 90-114 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,330 | +$55 +4.2% | 21 |
| 213d | Rs3Nurburgring | 65-89 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,439 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 213d | BuBuBlackBear | 90-114 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,051 | +$44 +4.2% | 21 |
| 213d |  jesterthegoose3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $12,303 | +$1,390 +11% | 23 |
| 213d | KARMASUR | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,429 | +$124 +8.7% | 23 |
| 213d | Annica | 90-114 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,962 | −$654 −33% | — |
| 213d |  NrNrfNrf2 | 115-139 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,539 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 213d | Ivan222 | 65-89 | SellYes68¢ → 0¢ | $1,180 | +$1,180 +100% | — |
| 213d | bipbipbop | 90-114 | SellNo74¢ → 0¢ | $1,081 | +$1,081 +100% | — |
| 213d | bipbipbop | 65-89 | SellYes74¢ → 0¢ | $1,105 | +$1,105 +100% | — |
| 213d | influenz.eth2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,025 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 213d | WCWS | 65-89 | BuyYes89¢ → 0¢ | $1,780 | −$1,780 −100% | 24 |
| 213d | influenz.eth2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $2,627 | −$2,627 −100% | 24 |
| 213d |  Boss75 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,786 | +$49 +0.3% | 20 |
| 213d | Educated-ParserNew account | 65-89 | SellYes87¢ → 0¢ | $1,092 | +$1,092 +100% | — |
| 213d | 0xe617…f251 | 65-89 | BuyYes88¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 24 |
| 213d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,742 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 213d | Thin-Print | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,186 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | BinaryBaron4 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $24,736 | +$125 +0.5% | 20 |
| 213d | onchainbuda | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,891 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | Boss78 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $95,177 | +$123 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d |  C78123 | 65-89 | BuyYes84¢ → 0¢ | $3,147 | −$3,147 −100% | 25 |
| 213d | mza55 | 115-139 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,285 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 213d | Prudent-Plug | 65-89 | BuyYes85¢ → 0¢ | $1,678 | −$1,678 −100% | 28 |
| 213d | carboyant | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,742 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | Polyyyy | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,817 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d | Annica | 65-89 | BuyYes84¢ → 0¢ | $2,313 | −$2,313 −100% | 24 |
| 213d | k7sh | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | k7sh | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,123 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 213d | may501 | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,285 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 213d |  0xMahes | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,775 | +$25 +0.9% | 20 |
| 213d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $4,170 | −$4,170 −100% | 28 |
| 213d | timeone | 90-114 | SellYes19¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | −$5,047 −440% | — |
| 213d | failstober3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $11,687 | −$11,687 −100% | 27 |
Richgoddess21,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 16 12:00 PM ET to March 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.