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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115-139 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 209d |  onchainbuda | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,115 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 209d | Actual-Ladle | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,340 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 209d | Personal-Digging | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,272 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | Joint-PenceNew account | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,046 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | ppobb1123 | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,090 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | hyp8883 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,303 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | powerFeng | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,391 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | iipera | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,438 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | KiTiFeng | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,277 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d |  PredictionYogi | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,676 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d |  FatFrumos | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,052 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d |  Bot4 | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,201 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d |  Gustav43 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,906 | +$118 +2.0% | 21 |
| 210d | Gustav4 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,301 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d |  Boss72 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,370 | +$40 +0.5% | 20 |
| 210d | Boss7 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,019 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 210d | Actual-Ladle | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,340 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d |  upont2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,897 | +$57 +0.3% | 20 |
| 210d |  LinaBell🦊3 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,466 | +$58 +0.6% | 20 |
| 210d | LinaBell🦊4 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,150 | +$157 +2.2% | 21 |
| 210d | amwfhv | 140-164 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,075 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 210d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,993 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,487 | +$189 +1.4% | 20 |
| 210d | Gustav4 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | LinaBell🦊 | 140-164 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,822 | −$18 −1.0% | — |
| 210d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | suyizi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,029 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d |  OraculumNobius | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d |  0xa8C4d45000b7976d897Ab79c21780E46faAA8482 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $33,008 | +$33 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | jidong9808 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,250 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | miyugyiftu66 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,232 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | hyp888 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | niuniuhgir | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,249 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d |  LikelyToo | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,590 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 210d | Ommamal | 115-139 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,848 | +$88 +3.1% | 21 |
| 210d |  Prexpect2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,410 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 210d | Boss72 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,984 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | Bankrupt-Loser | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,120 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | FieryPhoenix | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,248 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | mitikohalls | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,939 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | mitikohalls | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,247 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | Prinas | 140-164 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,380 | +$104 +7.5% | 22 |
| 210d |  AlmostRich | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 210d |  jesterthegoose3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $26,748 | +$998 +3.7% | 21 |
| 210d | AlmostRich | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$60 +3.1% | 21 |
| 210d | Collion | 90-114 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$309 +15% | 24 |
| 210d | Collion | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,998 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | Antaaa79 | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
| 210d | PredictionYogi | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,011 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 210d | Rs3Nurburgring | 90-114 | SellNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,150 | −$469 −41% | — |
| 210d | PredictionYogi | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,908 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | Sugary-Carpeting | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,881 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | hollowxl20 | 140-164 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,235 | −$110 −8.9% | — |
| 210d | Luxurious-Employment | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,108 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | Watchful-Demand | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,368 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 210d | Antaaa79 | 140-164 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | −$111 −11% | — |
| 210d | finikiec2 fills | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,086 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | peperiko | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,115 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 210d | hollowxl20 | 140-164 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,229 | +$116 +9.4% | 23 |
| 210d | clerk8998 | 140-164 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,207 | +$114 +9.4% | 23 |
nimikm2,300 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 19 12:00 PM ET to March 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 115-139 means the market gives it about 100%.