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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 226d | SimonaMagic100 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,177 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 226d |  Zenef2 | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,559 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 226d | niceShare | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,319 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 226d |  lebi4ik | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,510 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 226d | benben2026 | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,150 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 226d |  stauffen | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,193 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 226d | mocamoca | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,739 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 226d | badabumbum | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,648 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 226d | Separate-Beast | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,696 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 226d | swolfStrikes | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 226d | dudukos | 40-64 | BuyYes7¢ → 0¢ | $2,500 | −$2,500 −100% | 27 |
| 226d | Houdray4 fills | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $22,862 | +$41 +0.2% | 20 |
| 226d | Labb | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,974 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 226d |  PredictionYogi | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $19,456 | −$39 −0.2% | — |
| 226d | DegenEriccro | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,456 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 226d |  212octopus | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,008 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 226d | 07nbw4 | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 226d |  zouranzoki | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,266 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 226d |  Gustav43 fills | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $19,214 | +$144 +0.7% | 20 |
| 226d | DegenEriccro | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 226d |  LinaBell🦊 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 226d | Hiworld.2 fills | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,431 | +$32 +1.3% | 20 |
| 226d | benben2026 | <40 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,133 | +$19 +1.6% | 21 |
| 226d | DegenEriccro | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,258 | +$26 +2.0% | 21 |
| 226d | k7sh | <40 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | +$115 +9.1% | 23 |
| 226d | xixi932 | <40 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | +$198 +18% | 25 |
| 226d | forestk | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,721 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 226d | Fair-Tan | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 226d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,992 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 226d | BinaryBaron7 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $64,314 | +$118 +0.2% | 20 |
| 226d | onekey092 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,619 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 226d | CJLabs | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,870 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 226d |  KARMASUR | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $34,965 | +$35 +0.1% | 20 |
| 226d | Fair-Tan | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,975 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 226d |  C781232 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,995 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 226d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 227d |  badmoshbillu | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,228 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 227d | zzzzdas | 40-64 | BuyYes53¢ → 0¢ | $1,021 | −$1,021 −100% | 30 |
| 227d | niceShare | <40 | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $1,108 | −$1,108 −100% | 30 |
| 227d | JamesFeng | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,113 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 227d | prepoma | <40 | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $1,523 | −$1,523 −100% | 30 |
| 227d | LinaBell🦊 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,241 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 227d | Roar222 | 40-64 | BuyYes85¢ → 0¢ | $2,629 | −$2,629 −100% | 25 |
| 227d | dravey | <40 | SellNo85¢ → 0¢ | $1,183 | +$1,183 +100% | — |
| 227d |  Archeroon | <40 | SellNo88¢ → 0¢ | $1,320 | +$1,320 +100% | — |
| 227d | tenorplum | <40 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $6,601 | −$6,601 −100% | 21 |
| 227d | zouranzoki | <40 | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $1,158 | −$1,158 −100% | 24 |
| 227d |  Panopticon007 | <40 | SellNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,342 | +$1,342 +100% | — |
| 227d | dudukos | <40 | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,902 | −$438 −23% | — |
| 227d | fedeaaajlp | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,911 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 227d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | <40 | SellYes36¢ → 100¢ | $1,421 | −$2,487 −175% | — |
| 227d | SteveFill | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,536 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 227d |  Carrrr | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,080 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 227d | Vincent44230 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,137 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 227d | Ommamal | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,542 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 227d | sanssbby | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,011 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 227d | unfolding | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 227d | gallegozandria | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,050 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 227d | Machanache | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,142 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 227d | tifasan | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,132 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
AtakuyuManhattan4 shares
monkmood2,500 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 2 12:00 PM ET to March 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.