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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 196d | Thin-Print | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,656 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 196d |  DJB. | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,803 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 196d |  LeJoe | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,213 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 196d |  adencheboy | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,781 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 196d | Papuasus | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,986 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 196d |  Ahinara | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,317 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 196d | xixi932 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,025 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 196d | Poiuztrewq | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,298 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 196d | 2509327 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,343 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 196d |  stauffen | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,042 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 196d | yip88 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,097 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 196d |  MuskWillMakeMeRich | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,546 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 196d |  ghostfaded | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,145 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | Antaaa79 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,331 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | Cipry | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,578 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 197d |  Boss72 fills | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $17,580 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | Puzzled-Homeland | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,069 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | dudukos | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,067 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 197d |  all.in0828 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,050 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | WCWS | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,621 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | WCWS | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | Icannotwin | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,500 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 197d |  PredictionYogi | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 197d |  NrNrfNrf2 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,391 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,109 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | morkolen | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,147 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | Yuki7 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,554 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 197d | knfnthx | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,228 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 197d | BigFishSushiChief5 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,309 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 197d | Pungent-Almanac | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 197d | win-win-win99 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,294 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 197d |  Prexpect | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,030 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 197d |  0000000000000000000000K | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,262 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 197d |  520111 | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,066 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 197d |  Archeroon | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,545 | −$11 −0.3% | — |
| 197d | forestk | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,655 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 197d | influenz.eth4 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,787 | +$232 +3.0% | 21 |
| 197d |  Gustav4 | 260-279 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,306 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 197d | Bankrupt-Loser | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,847 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 197d | Dhillon8836 | 260-279 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,199 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 197d |  lasiweijiasi | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 197d | Wuk0ng | 260-279 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,240 | −$75 −2.3% | — |
| 197d |  LinaBell🦊 | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,016 | +$27 +0.9% | 20 |
| 197d | morkolen | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,135 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 197d | Bankrupt-Loser | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,182 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | leohe | 260-279 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,556 | +$99 +6.4% | 22 |
| 197d | leohe | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,194 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,840 | +$379 +7.8% | 22 |
| 197d |  Annica6 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $9,175 | +$4,595 +50% | 28 |
| 197d | MuskWillMakeMeRich | 260-279 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | +$123 +8.6% | 23 |
| 197d | forestk | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,655 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | Actual-Ladle | 280-299 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,852 | +$234 +13% | 24 |
| 197d | LOVE55804 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,702 | +$46 +0.2% | 20 |
| 197d | Medical-Universe2 fills | 280-299 | SellYes23¢ → 0¢ | $4,040 | +$4,040 +100% | — |
| 197d |  upont5 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,219 | +$64 +0.4% | 20 |
| 197d | hfghfghfg9 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,307 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 197d |  sundogs | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,008 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 197d | Bankrupt-Loser | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,950 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 197d | Wuk0ng | 260-279 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $2,450 | +$865 +35% | 29 |
| 197d | all.in0828 | 260-279 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$1,054 +35% | 29 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 100%.