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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 340-359 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220d |  badmoshbillu | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,003 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | Wise-Basil | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,359 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 220d |  abhionpoly | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,720 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | Jason2025 | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,433 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | niceShare | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,328 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | Actual-Ladle | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,821 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  LeJoe2 fills | 360-379 | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $8,608 | −$1,874 −22% | — |
| 220d |  Elonurmom2 fills | 340-359 | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $7,183 | −$5,317 −74% | — |
| 220d | kobie3 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,989 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  Annica14 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $54,456 | +$53,660 +99% | 30 |
| 220d | Ashurnasirpal | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,499 | −$11 −0.4% | — |
| 220d |  LinaBell🦊 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,220 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  junseokletsg0 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,497 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 220d | geraldhew893 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $5,116 | +$512 +10% | 23 |
| 220d |  MuskWillMakeMeRich | 340-359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,080 | −$16 −0.8% | — |
| 220d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,215 | +$58 +0.8% | 20 |
| 220d | kobie33 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $34,617 | +$71 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d |  Mei-ji | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,551 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | Urban-Pressurisation | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,225 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d | LinaBell🦊2 fills | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,551 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 220d |  StinkyCobbler | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,764 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | abhionpoly | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,507 | −$11 −0.2% | — |
| 220d |  noreasapa | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | aseeg21 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,067 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | CODDaddy | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,241 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | BrightStars2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,775 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | Separate-Beast | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,155 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | Annica4 fills | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $128,844 | −$152 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | Separate-Beast | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,986 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,919 | +$81 +0.4% | 20 |
| 220d | Siziriv | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $20,432 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | Siziriv | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,411 | +$41 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,370 | +$82 +0.9% | 20 |
| 220d | jidong98082 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,393 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d | Separate-Beast | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,264 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  OraculumNobius | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,702 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | BrightStars | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,918 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | TomFeng | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | Separate-Beast | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,992 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d | jidong9808 | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,201 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d | influenz.eth6 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $11,455 | +$400 +3.5% | 21 |
| 220d | PredictionYogi | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $25,328 | −$25 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | 7G-MAN | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | Sam-AI | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,882 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  0000000000000000000000K | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,598 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  dushen88 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,256 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | ShivaLemire | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | Petre331 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,907 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  AlexTiger | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,647 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | dudukos4 fills | 340-359 | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $11,902 | −$6,404 −54% | — |
| 221d | BinaryBaron5 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $24,466 | +$689 +2.8% | 21 |
| 221d | Wicked-Mayonnaise | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,444 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | Bustling-Repository | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,518 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d |  Gustav4 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $26,284 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d |  Prexpect | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $49,621 | +$52 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | kuxs | 340-359 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,500 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | geraldhew89 | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 221d | N3D1 | 340-359 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,116 | +$41 +1.9% | 21 |
| 221d |  ElonSpam3 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes24¢ → 100¢ | $5,916 | +$18,852 +319% | 39 |
| 221d |  tupac84 fills | 340-359 | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $10,710 | −$4,484 −42% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 3 12:00 PM ET to March 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 340-359 means the market gives it about 100%.
