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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 100% | +43 pts | +88 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −4 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −7 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −28 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −6 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 192d | Cipry | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,554 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 192d |  AmirsadeghSa | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,143 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | Wagmi420 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,456 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | 0xcf0d…1081 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,185 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d |  Gabbers | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,129 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | GJLCS | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,469 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | Poiuztrewq | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,884 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | Papuasus | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,316 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | Icannotwin | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 192d |  Fablurou | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 192d |  all.in0828 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,822 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 193d |  hidden-james | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,006 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 193d |  Elonurmom | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,957 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 193d | Medical-Universe | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,797 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 193d |  520111 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,034 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 193d | yip88 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,228 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 193d |  LordYeah | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 193d |  Prexpect2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $32,964 | +$33 +0.1% | 20 |
| 193d | French-Saint | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,601 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 193d | knfnthx | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,243 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 193d |  sundogs | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,047 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 193d | BinaryBaron4 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $25,773 | +$141 +0.5% | 20 |
| 193d | BinaryBaron | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,737 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 193d | 520111 | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,298 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 193d |  upont | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,622 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 193d | dfsdfsdfd2 | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,354 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 193d | xixi932 | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 193d | Optimal-Overclocking | 260-279 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | −$14 −1.3% | — |
| 193d | upont | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,238 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 193d | 0085 | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,464 | +$18 +1.2% | 20 |
| 193d | forestk | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,086 | +$141 +1.7% | 21 |
| 193d | Wise-Basil | 260-279 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,910 | −$59 −3.1% | — |
| 193d |  ElonSpam4 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $7,950 | +$672 +8.5% | 23 |
| 193d | dudukos | 260-279 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | −$128 −6.4% | — |
| 193d | all.in0828 | 260-279 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,721 | +$97 +5.7% | 22 |
| 193d |  Annica4 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $8,154 | +$2,143 +26% | 27 |
| 193d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $5,204 | +$2,359 +45% | 30 |
| 193d | lankeleads3 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $5,329 | +$1,467 +28% | 27 |
| 193d | forestk | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,100 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 193d | tulasiraolanke | 260-279 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$117 +9.9% | 23 |
| 193d | morkolen | 260-279 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,131 | +$174 +15% | 24 |
| 193d | ElonSpam | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,503 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 193d | changc1 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,602 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 193d | delion2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,213 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 193d |  onchainbuda | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,238 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 193d |  CashReviver | 280-299 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,410 | +$291 +21% | 26 |
| 193d | ok2606 | 260-279 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,613 | +$403 +25% | 27 |
| 193d | French-Saint | 260-279 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $2,797 | +$771 +28% | 27 |
| 193d | cftgyu | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,351 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 193d | deyi962451 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,479 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 193d | thegreatrejuvenationoftheChinesenation2 fills | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,902 | −$13 −0.4% | — |
| 193d | tthdfghdfg3 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,529 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 193d |  Boss72 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,603 | +$37 +0.6% | 20 |
| 193d | upont | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,230 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 193d | UptoberAD | 260-279 | SellYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | −$586 −58% | — |
| 193d | BinaryBaron | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,834 | +$44 +0.9% | 20 |
| 193d | geraldhew89 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,112 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 193d | Vincent44230 | 300-319 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | −$11 −1.1% | — |
| 193d | onekey09 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,616 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 193d | Medical-Universe | 280-299 | SellYes40¢ → 0¢ | $1,308 | +$1,308 +100% | — |
nimikm2,600 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 100%.