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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 223d | dudukos2 fills | 90-114 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,205 | −$127 −4.0% | — |
| 223d | NetDevil | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,073 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 223d | k7sh3 fills | 115-139 | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $6,523 | −$1,846 −28% | — |
| 223d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,447 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 223d |  dushen88 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,494 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 223d | mitikohalls | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,219 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 223d |  jesterthegoose | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,858 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 223d |  KARMASUR | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,173 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 223d | SergeyFora | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,865 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 223d | jesterthegoose | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,255 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 223d | Ommamal | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,825 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 223d | KARMASUR | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,683 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 223d | KARMASUR | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,188 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 223d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $13,629 | +$834 +6.1% | 22 |
| 223d | PredictionYogi | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,382 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 223d |  LinaBell🦊 | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,832 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 223d | bipbipbop | 115-139 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,488 | −$12 −0.8% | — |
| 223d | bipbipbop | 90-114 | SellYes100¢ | $1,492 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 223d |  QianlongJr | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,604 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 223d |  NrNrfNrf24 fills | 115-139 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,411 | −$237 −3.7% | — |
| 223d |  Gustav4 | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,837 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 223d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf92 fills | 115-139 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,402 | −$122 −3.6% | — |
| 223d | k7sh3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,489 | +$75 +1.0% | 20 |
| 223d | xixi932 | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 223d | luckyshoe | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,027 | +$31 +0.6% | 20 |
| 223d | influenz.eth5 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $7,737 | +$452 +5.8% | 21 |
| 223d | kingronij | 90-114 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,745 | −$137 −2.9% | — |
| 223d | jianghua3504 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 223d | Vincent44230 | 115-139 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,196 | −$55 −4.6% | — |
| 223d | NetDevil | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,061 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 223d | mitikohalls | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,182 | +$42 +1.0% | 20 |
| 223d | 20Ec89 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,197 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 223d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,409 | +$40 +2.9% | 21 |
| 223d |  Mei-ji | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,343 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 223d |  Boss72 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,507 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 223d | NrNrfNrf22 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,497 | +$278 +5.1% | 21 |
| 223d | Assured-Magnet | 90-114 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,103 | +$95 +8.6% | 23 |
| 223d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,409 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 223d | HuatzTTM2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,226 | +$23 +0.4% | 20 |
| 224d | Dicccccc11 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $32,794 | +$5,098 +16% | 24 |
| 224d | Ivan222 | 90-114 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | +$112 +8.9% | 23 |
| 224d |  Brotherinchrist | 90-114 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | −$130 −12% | — |
| 224d | FalseNine | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,232 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 224d | influenz.eth4 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,520 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 224d |  flow-trader-at-optiver6 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,275 | +$122 +1.1% | 20 |
| 224d | flow-trader-at-optiver4 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $7,936 | +$1,052 +13% | 23 |
| 224d | Well-Off-Impropriety | 90-114 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $4,902 | +$1,472 +30% | 28 |
| 224d | bigmoneylfg | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,964 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 224d |  lebi4ik | 90-114 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$1,439 +29% | 27 |
| 224d | kingronij2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $3,580 | +$1,302 +36% | 29 |
| 224d |  500AndADream | 90-114 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$338 +34% | 28 |
| 224d | NetDevil | 115-139 | BuyYes23¢ → 0¢ | $1,206 | −$1,206 −100% | 29 |
| 224d | mitikohalls | 90-114 | SellNo26¢ → 0¢ | $1,214 | +$1,214 +100% | — |
| 224d | flow-trader-at-optiver2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,672 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 224d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,366 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 224d | carboyant | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,616 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 224d | ManCangGangGanDaDanGan | 140-164 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,918 | +$126 +3.2% | 21 |
| 224d | PredictionYogi | 140-164 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,213 | +$117 +3.6% | 21 |
| 224d | ak9696962 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,343 | +$244 +4.6% | 21 |
| 224d | Goating | 90-114 | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $3,914 | −$3,006 −77% | — |
nimikm5,600 shares
Caishengod11,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 5 12:00 PM ET to March 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.