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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 360-379 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 217d | Actual-Ladle | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,488 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 217d |  DJB. | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,177 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | niceShare | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,771 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 217d |  LeJoe | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,867 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | Wild-Manner | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,571 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | samponcuochi | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,004 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 217d |  Elonurmom | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,645 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | Blank-Sweatshop | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,598 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | ft23 | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,278 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | Descuy | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,476 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,179 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 217d | Trader1567rrr | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,368 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 218d | Personal-Digging | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,010 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 218d | Personal-Digging | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,045 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 218d | Personal-Digging | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,597 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 218d |  0000000000000000000000K | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,288 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 218d |  Gabbers | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,084 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 218d | 0x265f…a4483 fills | 360-379 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $4,648 | −$973 −21% | — |
| 218d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,332 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 218d | deyi9624512 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,295 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 218d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,316 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 218d |  Prexpect | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,297 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 218d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,293 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 218d | dudukos7 fills | 360-379 | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $16,323 | −$7,256 −44% | — |
| 218d | Wicked-Mayonnaise | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,496 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 218d | BinaryBaron6 fills | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $53,588 | +$199 +0.4% | 20 |
| 218d |  Mir314 | 360-379 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 218d | ft23 | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,240 | +$42 +1.0% | 20 |
| 218d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 218d | Ashurnasirpal | 360-379 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,447 | +$18 +1.2% | 20 |
| 218d | MettaWorldPeace00 | 360-379 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,315 | +$18 +1.4% | 20 |
| 218d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 360-379 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $4,184 | +$1,593 +38% | 27 |
| 218d |  oefwe | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,433 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 218d | Strict-Nanoparticle | 360-379 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,531 | +$98 +6.4% | 22 |
| 218d | luckyshoe | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,307 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 218d | Strong-Effacement | 380-399 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,914 | +$207 +11% | 23 |
| 218d | mza55 | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,119 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 218d |  Therealsmurf | 380-399 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,544 | +$270 +17% | 25 |
| 218d | 0x6234 | 360-379 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,132 | +$200 +18% | 25 |
| 218d | N3D1 | 440-459 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 218d | onekey092 fills | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $53,482 | +$54 +0.1% | 20 |
| 218d | 50NXX | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 218d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,150 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 218d | ft232 fills | 400-419 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,240 | −$30 −0.7% | — |
| 218d | loveheng | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,605 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 218d |  Annica | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $50,298 | +$50 +0.1% | 20 |
| 218d | uglyKunkun | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,671 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 218d | JIUSHENzhou | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,094 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 218d |  Dr.napol2 fills | 400-419 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,961 | +$87 +2.2% | 21 |
| 218d | martinlim | 400-419 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,514 | −$34 −2.2% | — |
| 218d | AlexPro | 360-379 | BuyYes45¢ → 100¢ | $1,208 | +$1,482 +123% | 30 |
| 218d | MelH | 380-399 | BuyYes54¢ → 0¢ | $1,073 | −$1,073 −100% | 30 |
| 218d | wtfdoublecaptome | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,495 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 218d | oefwe | 400-419 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,386 | +$49 +2.0% | 21 |
| 218d | ft23 | 400-419 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,184 | +$87 +2.1% | 21 |
| 218d | beatyesterday2 fills | 400-419 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,766 | −$132 −3.5% | — |
| 218d | Ondra | 360-379 | BuyYes36¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$1,924 +179% | 30 |
| 218d | Ondra | 380-399 | SellYes62¢ → 0¢ | $1,043 | +$1,043 +100% | — |
| 218d | Ondra | 360-379 | SellNo58¢ → 0¢ | $1,091 | +$1,091 +100% | — |
| 218d | dudukos | 360-379 | BuyYes48¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$1,627 +108% | 30 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 6 12:00 PM ET to March 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 360-379 means the market gives it about 100%.