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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 221d |  ZhangMuZhi.. | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,366 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d |  halker | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,160 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | swolfStrikes | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,347 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  Mei-ji | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,170 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  PumpThePompey | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  lebi4ik | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $15,013 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 221d |  bigguy4u | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,374 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | bipbipbop | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,177 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | benben2026 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,296 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 221d | dudukos2 fills | 90-114 | SellYes54¢ → 100¢ | $2,433 | −$2,084 −86% | — |
| 221d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,570 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | fedeaaajlp | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,336 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 222d |  Annica | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,894 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d |  Prexpect3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $41,077 | +$137 +0.3% | 20 |
| 222d | deyi962451 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,678 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d |  Carrrr | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,020 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | Annica7 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $44,493 | +$538 +1.2% | 20 |
| 222d | Prexpect2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,980 | +$19 +0.3% | 20 |
| 222d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $5,845 | +$716 +12% | 23 |
| 222d | Mei-ji | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,549 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | 0xe617…f2512 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $6,000 | +$423 +7.1% | 22 |
| 222d | kirino | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,120 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 222d | k7sh | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,974 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,945 | +$55 +0.6% | 20 |
| 222d | Dicccccc11 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $40,817 | +$3,737 +9.2% | 23 |
| 222d | BinaryBaron | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,991 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,556 | +$16 +1.0% | 20 |
| 222d | Noted-Currency | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,346 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 222d | Mascalzonelatino3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $52,545 | +$696 +1.3% | 20 |
| 222d | GabiFP | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,236 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | BinaryBaron | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,971 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | niceShare | 115-139 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,197 | −$63 −5.3% | — |
| 222d | vetmin | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,053 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | bigguy4u | 90-114 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $5,948 | +$433 +7.3% | 22 |
| 222d | Dicccccc2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $6,858 | +$435 +6.3% | 22 |
| 222d | Worldly-Fifth | 140-164 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,458 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 222d | Actual-Ladle | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,556 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 222d |  Boss7 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d | 0xe617…f251 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d | WCWS | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,495 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 222d | Boss74 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,382 | +$28 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d | tattoomule32 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | madapearson | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,004 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | lebi4ik3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$1,491 +21% | 26 |
| 222d | delfin1 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,057 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 222d | whitedolphin | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,458 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 222d | Annica | 90-114 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,777 | −$501 −28% | — |
| 222d | Gohomeloser | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,776 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | Mascalzonelatino | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,654 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d | dudukos | 115-139 | SellYes23¢ → 0¢ | $1,470 | +$1,470 +100% | — |
| 222d | Mascalzonelatino | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $34,995 | +$477 +1.4% | 20 |
| 222d | leohe2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $2,936 | +$1,418 +48% | 28 |
| 222d | MelH2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,832 | +$168 +4.4% | 21 |
| 222d | SuperBet69 | 90-114 | SellNo56¢ → 0¢ | $1,431 | +$1,431 +100% | — |
| 222d | onekey093 fills | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,741 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | Worldly-Fifth | 140-164 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,322 | +$44 +3.3% | 21 |
| 222d | 02041992 | 90-114 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,031 | −$684 −66% | — |
| 222d | Collion | 90-114 | BuyNo45¢ → 0¢ | $1,628 | −$1,628 −100% | 28 |
| 222d | Collion | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,628 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | Boss74 fills | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,574 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
Alaico12,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 7 12:00 PM ET to March 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.