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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115-139 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 219d | Personal-Digging | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,065 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 219d |  Therealsmurf | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,049 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  JackSparrowSentMe | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,147 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | RogerHen2 fills | 115-139 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $4,168 | −$891 −21% | — |
| 220d | Fair-Tan | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,804 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d |  Annica5 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $13,190 | +$741 +5.6% | 22 |
| 220d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,135 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d |  Gustav4 | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,342 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d | Gustav4 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | 0xe617…f251 | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,000 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | 0x265f…a448 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,852 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 220d | mitikohalls | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,892 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $12,502 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | forestk | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,728 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d | PredictionYogi4 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,535 | +$123 +1.6% | 21 |
| 220d |  Boss7 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,081 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | comeWiner123 | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,630 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 220d | JackSparrowSentMe | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,145 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d | Annica | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,354 | −$19 −0.4% | — |
| 220d | touxie | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,630 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | iipera | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,864 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 220d | 0xumbra | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,073 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d |  QianlongJr | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,150 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 220d | MelH | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  Sakura00 | 140-164 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 220d | Separate-Beast | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,617 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 220d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 220d | Annica | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,069 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | Collion | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,180 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | 50NXX | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | WCWS2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,883 | +$117 +1.3% | 20 |
| 220d | 0x6234 | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,118 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 220d | WCWS | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | ft23 | 140-164 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,887 | −$52 −2.8% | — |
| 220d |  Gabbers | 115-139 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,048 | +$85 +4.2% | 21 |
| 220d | James.N | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,330 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | Houdray2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,498 | +$78 +0.3% | 20 |
| 220d | laoli668 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d |  KARMASUR | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,619 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 220d |  LOL525 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,248 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,214 | +$19 +0.4% | 20 |
| 220d | venezuelain | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,597 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d | Simmelariii | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | Sakura00 | 140-164 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | +$45 +4.3% | 21 |
| 220d | loveheng | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,535 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d |  500AndADream | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,521 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 220d | ppobb1123 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,623 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 220d | Assured-Magnet | 115-139 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$27 +2.6% | 21 |
| 220d | JackSparrowSentMe2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,214 | −$271 −12% | — |
| 220d | BuBuBlackBear | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,330 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 220d | Gustav4 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $33,793 | +$207 +0.6% | 20 |
| 220d |  kejsi | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,800 | +$33 +1.2% | 20 |
| 220d |  Archeroon | 90-114 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | −$100 −5.3% | — |
| 220d | Ommamal | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,152 | +$65 +3.0% | 21 |
| 220d | niceShare | 90-114 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,314 | −$113 −4.9% | — |
| 220d | bipbipbop | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,025 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 220d | JackSparrowSentMe | 90-114 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | +$85 +7.9% | 22 |
| 220d | RogerHen2 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $3,269 | +$1,790 +55% | 28 |
| 220d | Sleepy-Shoat | 90-114 | SellYes17¢ → 0¢ | $1,039 | +$1,039 +100% | — |
| 220d | k7sh | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,488 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 9 12:00 PM ET to March 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 115-139 means the market gives it about 100%.