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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +28 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −36 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −27 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 165d | SLG007 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,792 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 165d | CJLabs | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,202 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 165d | svmt | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,135 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 165d | OnlySafeBets | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,587 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 165d | OnlySafeBets | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,272 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 165d | OstapP | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,993 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 165d |  upont2 fills | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,230 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 165d | nplyer | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,041 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,366 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | Wild-Manner | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,119 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 166d |  Mei-ji2 fills | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,051 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | Klutzy-Blush | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,958 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | ylnopU | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,030 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | BinaryBaron4 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,724 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 166d | onekey02 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,440 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d | c76A | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,052 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 166d | Sirius1092 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,256 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 166d | BinaryBaron | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,128 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 166d | 5551ab | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,789 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 166d | WCWS4 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,643 | +$75 +1.0% | 20 |
| 166d | yolol | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,400 | +$31 +0.7% | 20 |
| 166d | Klutzy-Blush | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,413 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 166d | OnlySafeBets2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,008 | +$270 +4.5% | 21 |
| 166d | Nearcaster | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,194 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | undarr | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 166d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,068 | +$22 +2.0% | 21 |
| 166d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$40 +2.0% | 21 |
| 166d | satoshi2009a | 40-64 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | −$49 −4.8% | — |
| 166d | Wild-Manner | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,735 | +$117 +4.3% | 21 |
| 166d | IVNBRENESS1111 | 65-89 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,161 | −$102 −4.7% | — |
| 166d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,250 | +$118 +5.3% | 22 |
| 166d | TomSargent | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,092 | +$112 +5.4% | 22 |
| 166d | Degenerate-Dude | 40-64 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,973 | +$149 +7.5% | 22 |
| 166d | gonesteme | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | venezuelain | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,297 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 166d | upont2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,209 | +$19 +0.6% | 20 |
| 166d | OnlySafeBets | 40-64 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $4,083 | +$444 +11% | 23 |
| 166d | rusgreat2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,500 | +$39 +0.9% | 20 |
| 166d |  Boss72 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,326 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 166d | undarr | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 166d | gonesteme | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,475 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 166d | undarr | 40-64 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,721 | +$191 +11% | 23 |
| 166d |  yarofxxk | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,678 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 166d | xxtgsy | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,680 | +$24 +0.5% | 20 |
| 166d | rusgreat | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,277 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d |  PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,316 | +$564 +43% | 28 |
| 166d |  Annica | 40-64 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,492 | +$769 +52% | 28 |
| 166d | ppobb1123 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,334 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,412 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d | yolol2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,742 | +$144 +1.3% | 20 |
| 166d | wtfdoublecaptome | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,600 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d | renzhenyiquan | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$31 +1.6% | 20 |
| 166d | Yanncll | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,385 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | jidong9808 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,085 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d | venezuelain | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,397 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d | monastyr | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,668 | +$41 +1.1% | 20 |
| 166d | Outrageous-Butter | 40-64 | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,118 | −$683 −61% | — |
| 166d | Boss74 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,320 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 166d | Annica3 fills | <40 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $12,545 | +$806 +6.4% | 21 |
| 166d |  A9gain | <40 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | −$34 −3.1% | — |
nimikm6,500 shares
junseokletsg02,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.