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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | +37 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −30 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 137d | Lined-Macadamia | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,054 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 137d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,029 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 137d | mamai | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,499 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | Why-always-me | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,308 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 138d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | <40 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $5,420 | +$341 +6.3% | 22 |
| 138d | PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,697 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 138d | win-win-win992 fills | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,286 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 138d | neymar777 | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$40 +2.1% | 21 |
| 138d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | <40 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $5,946 | +$1,056 +18% | 24 |
| 138d | laoli668 | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,210 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 138d | WCWS | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 138d | Repulsive-Hit | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,948 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 138d |  Nikzzy | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,901 | +$59 +2.0% | 21 |
| 138d | Nikzzy | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,873 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | Solitude262 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes53¢ → 0¢ | $5,265 | −$5,265 −100% | 25 |
| 138d | SLGBTC100W | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,649 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | yip88 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,089 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 138d |  upont2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $57,238 | +$57 +0.1% | 20 |
| 138d | BinaryBaron | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 138d |  Boss72 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,623 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 138d | KazumiKitano2 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 138d | mamai | <40 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$523 +17% | 25 |
| 138d | Why-always-me | <40 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$511 +28% | 27 |
| 138d | yolol2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,291 | +$96 +0.3% | 20 |
| 138d | Repulsive-Hit | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,938 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 138d | nole-ksum | 65-89 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,066 | −$39 −1.9% | — |
| 138d | luca88 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,966 | +$36 +0.6% | 20 |
| 138d | dudukos | <40 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | −$373 −33% | — |
| 138d | Solitude262 fills | 40-64 | SellYes20¢ → 0¢ | $2,527 | +$2,527 +100% | — |
| 138d | yip88 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,082 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | Nikzzy | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,386 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 138d | bipbipbop | 40-64 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,085 | −$342 −32% | — |
| 138d | xiao2222 | 40-64 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,502 | +$399 +27% | 26 |
| 138d | WCWS | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,589 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 138d | Warmhearted-Client | <40 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | +$336 +32% | 29 |
| 138d | Ag500k | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,387 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | onekey02 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,354 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 138d | Boss7 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,643 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 138d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,707 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 139d | iamcj2025 | 65-89 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,046 | −$43 −4.1% | — |
| 139d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,945 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 139d | Bigggggggg | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,576 | +$58 +3.7% | 21 |
| 139d | Bigggggggg | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,626 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 139d | yip88 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 139d | yip88 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,078 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 139d | Ag500k | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,208 | +$92 +4.2% | 21 |
| 139d | nole-ksum | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$105 +5.3% | 21 |
| 139d | yip88 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,077 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 139d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,682 | +$30 +0.8% | 20 |
| 139d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,272 | +$39 +1.7% | 20 |
| 139d | SmolDog | 40-64 | BuyNo40¢ → 100¢ | $1,622 | +$2,434 +150% | 26 |
| 139d |  tupac8 | 40-64 | BuyNo40¢ → 100¢ | $2,666 | +$4,000 +150% | 27 |
| 140d | Ag500k | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,346 | +$43 +1.8% | 20 |
| 140d | Boss7 | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,050 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | labtradoor | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,905 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
Viberoni391 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 30 12:00 PM ET to June 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.