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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160-179 | 100% | +56 pts | +91 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −34 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −6 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −2 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 329d |  robopboc | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,987 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 329d | shelle | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,009 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 329d | -Rocket- | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,836 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 329d | shaan1111 | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,004 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 329d | glenncal | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,863 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 330d | Hurtful-Hide | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,002 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 330d | Poiuztrewq | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,149 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 330d |  MankPredict | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,835 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 330d |  onchainbuda | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,630 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 330d | 0xredpanda2 fills | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,146 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 330d | Joyful-Automaton | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,045 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 330d | THEFACKER | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,419 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 330d |  retardegen | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,676 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 330d | 0xredpanda | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,600 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 330d |  alpha01-192 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,001 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 330d |  LinaBell🦊 | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,110 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 330d | internetcapitalmarket | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,407 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | OddsQuill | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,059 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,850 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | mantije | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,042 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d |  zwxokx3 fills | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,272 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 330d | Babunch | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,330 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | bigmachi | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,045 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $12,541 | +$959 +7.7% | 22 |
| 330d | dsssso99 | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,040 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | aserssd | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,050 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | lowww | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,044 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | Egocen | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,093 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | georgyio | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,002 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | icoman | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,031 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | versie | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,021 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | Egocen | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,060 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 330d |  HTFK | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,095 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 330d |  Prexpect2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $3,707 | +$734 +20% | 24 |
| 330d | weschen | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,729 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | Constancefung | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,054 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 330d |  OuchMyBalls | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,407 | −$10 −0.3% | — |
| 330d | Constancefung | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,055 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 330d | 5432525 | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,043 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 330d | SerenaStaker | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,978 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 330d |  ProUserr | 160-179 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,114 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 330d | Lucyher | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,245 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 330d | lowidlas | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,080 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 330d | giggleers | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,071 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 330d | baixs | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,058 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 330d | maxgim | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,047 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 330d | easymoney3 | 180-199 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,786 | +$14 +0.5% | 20 |
| 330d | ltotheog | 160-179 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $22,724 | +$116 +0.5% | 20 |
| 330d | wokerjoesleeper6 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $10,624 | +$399 +3.8% | 21 |
| 330d | influenz.eth6 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $11,349 | +$377 +3.3% | 21 |
| 330d |  Annica4 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $22,659 | +$10,316 +46% | 28 |
| 330d | tkmonie | 160-179 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $22,849 | −$344 −1.5% | — |
| 330d |  gotoath | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,883 | +$69 +0.8% | 20 |
| 330d | 0xE7ea64e9acF4427678febB7cc9BAEdf7995cDd4 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,011 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 330d | sergi84 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,990 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 330d | eldashpol | 160-179 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | −$41 −3.6% | — |
| 330d | Mariya22 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,788 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | MankPredict | 160-179 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$37 +2.0% | 21 |
| 330d | wokerjoesleeper7 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,496 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | influenz.eth6 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,155 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
OuchMyBalls9,444 shares
4.562,467 shares
FadmohA11,391 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 14 12:00 PM ET to November 21, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 160-179 means the market gives it about 100%.