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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280-299 | 100% | +45 pts | +97 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −6 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −3 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −19 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −19 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −19 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −5 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 321d | godson02 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,167 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | udjbfm | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,530 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | justnobody | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,978 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 322d |  ShoebodyBop1.75spedup | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,812 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 322d |  Ivan76 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,158 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | Town15 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,851 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | IO. | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,539 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | -Rocket-2 fills | 280-299 | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $2,268 | −$1,143 −50% | — |
| 322d |  SmakAfriki | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,407 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | almondlover9 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,315 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | almondlover9 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,825 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | Cuddly-Degradation | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,410 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | Cuddly-Degradation | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,705 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | Boring-Sorghum | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,839 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | xd168 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,162 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | Damp-LocationNew account | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | Branvik | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,056 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 323d |  gitlucky | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,076 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 323d | SneakyTom | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,491 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 323d | besmart2025 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,896 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 323d |  FatBB | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,545 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 323d | nfxss | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,805 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 323d | fasemusk | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,098 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 323d | Icannotwin | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,257 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 323d | karenkarl | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,612 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 323d |  4.56 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,483 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 323d | FaceToFuture | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,720 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 323d |  RayMarkYi | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,492 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 323d |  JAHODA | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $55,329 | +$55 +0.1% | 20 |
| 323d |  Prexpect3 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $19,257 | +$223 +1.2% | 20 |
| 323d |  Gustav4 | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,475 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 323d |  PredictionYogi9 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $21,459 | +$2,058 +9.6% | 23 |
| 323d | jijihaoda | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,049 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 323d | yokali22 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,542 | +$26 +0.3% | 20 |
| 323d | 20BPS | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $38,220 | +$77 +0.2% | 20 |
| 323d | shelle | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,961 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 323d | jeyjeyjey | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,463 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 323d |  Annica8 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $15,982 | +$8,342 +52% | 25 |
| 323d | newitt | 300-319 | SellNo100¢ | $1,194 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 323d | MOGA.eth | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,175 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 323d | Aggravating-Treaty2 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,584 | +$241 +6.7% | 23 |
| 323d | easymoney3 | 280-299 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,243 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 323d | FaceToFuture | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,881 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 323d |  ChaeChae | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,213 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 323d | karenkarl | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,601 | +$14 +0.4% | 20 |
| 323d | karenkarl | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,602 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 323d |  lafougere | 280-299 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | −$37 −3.7% | — |
| 323d |  Easying-Fleeman4 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $10,130 | +$233 +2.3% | 21 |
| 323d | Prexpect2 fills | 280-299 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,519 | −$113 −2.5% | — |
| 323d | Joyful-Automaton | 280-299 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,704 | −$47 −2.8% | — |
| 323d | RealSK | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,120 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 323d | 20251021 | 280-299 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | −$28 −2.2% | — |
| 323d | 0x265f…a4482 fills | 280-299 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,386 | −$230 −9.6% | — |
| 323d |  lfgbro | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,012 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 323d | Stimulating-Gherkin | 280-299 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,895 | +$116 +1.7% | 21 |
| 323d | Akarin | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,491 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 323d |  ArcLing2 fills | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $17,108 | −$17 −0.1% | — |
| 323d |  NotSoEasyMoney | 280-299 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | −$41 −3.7% | — |
| 323d | newitt2 fills | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,089 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 323d | Bakery-Cumbershack | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,154 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
IPman-68315 shares
OuchMyBalls16,084 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 21 12:00 PM ET to November 28, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 280-299 means the market gives it about 100%.