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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 100% | +47 pts | +91 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −2 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −4 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −7 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −27 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −5 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 318d | Bitgod | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 318d | 0xredpanda | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,697 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 318d |  Fablurou | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,202 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 318d | IO. | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,127 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 318d | -Rocket- | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,021 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 318d | Town15 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,192 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 318d | swolfStrikes | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $16,828 | −$17 −0.1% | — |
| 318d | Mathewherbert | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,051 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 319d | jamesab | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,782 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 319d | abshdd1 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,897 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 319d | pc9527 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,088 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 319d | MAIXAI | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,138 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 319d |  Nobo | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | pupol | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,731 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d |  sub96 | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d |  lavendertown | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | Solmaxi8888.sol | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,236 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 319d |  Prexpect3 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,048 | +$80 +0.7% | 20 |
| 319d | Joyful-Automaton2 fills | 280-299 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,464 | −$249 −7.2% | — |
| 319d | 11rain | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | yshi | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,811 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | janoki | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | Solmaxi8888.sol2 fills | 300-319 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,223 | −$23 −0.7% | — |
| 319d | Wicked-Mayonnaise2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,317 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 319d | planbank2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,115 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 319d | LoraK | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | Linear-Recall | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,204 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | GUIREmethod | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,438 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | dddtrips | 260-279 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,899 | −$26 −0.7% | — |
| 319d | astromage | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,666 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 319d |  LelonBull | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,193 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d |  Gustav4 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,053 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 319d | astromage3 fills | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,275 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 319d |  JonaMar666 | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,657 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | 0x265f…a4482 fills | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,594 | −$19 −0.4% | — |
| 319d | wokerjoesleeper | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,473 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 319d | sigal | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,088 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | pushki | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,486 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | 5551ab | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,988 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 319d | LazyWanker | 260-279 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,008 | −$32 −0.6% | — |
| 319d | 5551ab | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 319d |  zwxokx | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,786 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 319d | astromage | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,668 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 319d | Nobo | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,352 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 319d | noovd | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,930 | +$36 +0.6% | 20 |
| 319d | shelle | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,714 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 319d | MAIXAI | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,161 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 319d |  kimppuppi | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,598 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 319d |  Vivalavidaaaaa | 280-299 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,930 | −$40 −1.0% | — |
| 319d | 4000 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,504 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 319d | MAIXAI | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,197 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 319d | mikolas | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,044 | +$33 +1.6% | 21 |
| 319d | mahmadi | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,616 | +$33 +2.0% | 21 |
| 319d |  axelverse.sol | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | jikaszz | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,698 | +$29 +1.7% | 21 |
| 319d | sasdasdw | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,659 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | giangOT | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,016 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 319d | ABC13213 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,211 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 319d | 0x9f32…6ad5 | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,900 | +$100 +2.0% | 21 |
| 319d | sadicyknase | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | +$40 +2.0% | 21 |
OuchMyBalls15,000 shares
gooseridingassad5,904 shares
4.564,148 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 25 12:00 PM ET to December 2, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 100%.