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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 100% | +62 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −5 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −26 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −32 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −41 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −12 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −3 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 315d |  Birdof3 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,878 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 315d | tkmonie | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,863 | −$22 −0.3% | — |
| 315d | Badekarret | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,706 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 315d | bilbo-b | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,453 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 315d | Hexagon555 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,187 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 315d | BeepBopBoopBop | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,313 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 315d | sisn | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,209 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 315d | Improbable-Citron | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,643 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 315d |  Annica3 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $26,180 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 315d |  ChunkyMonky | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,958 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 315d | xxSecretSaucexx | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d |  KARMASUR | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,222 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 240-259 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $23,414 | −$147 −0.6% | — |
| 316d | fasemusk | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,363 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 316d |  Gustav44 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,320 | +$32 +0.2% | 20 |
| 316d | Akarin | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,397 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d |  OuchMyBalls | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 316d | PredictionYogi | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,606 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 316d | 0xdamocles | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,169 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 316d |  awaylot2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 316d | flyingpiglj | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,779 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 316d | Constancefung | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,462 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 316d | fasemusk | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,361 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 316d |  Hunter1207 | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,425 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 316d | LazyWanker | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,985 | −$15 −0.3% | — |
| 316d | astromage | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,113 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 316d | flyingpiglj | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 316d | Gustav4 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,956 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d |  Prexpect | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,985 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d | 0x265f…a4482 fills | 240-259 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $5,243 | −$1,734 −33% | — |
| 316d | public1.tweezers | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,842 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d | pushki | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,171 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d | fakerrrrrrr | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,905 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 316d | Pankro | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,098 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d | Constancefung | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,398 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d | Wicked-Mayonnaise | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,134 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d | goalpost | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,251 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d |  LinaBell🦊 | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,411 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d |  zwxokx | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,594 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d | wedemboiz | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,244 | +$92 +0.3% | 20 |
| 316d |  mmarbles | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,494 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 316d | leiger | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $22,614 | +$31 +0.1% | 20 |
| 316d |  Risk000r | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,720 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 316d | oVyg7f | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,039 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 316d | Siziriv | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,463 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 316d | anciente2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,366 | +$14 +0.4% | 20 |
| 316d |  avenger | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,121 | +$120 +0.5% | 20 |
| 316d | kikikkiki | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,211 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 316d | fjrertf | 240-259 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,396 | +$44 +0.8% | 20 |
| 316d | fakerrrrrrr3 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $7,589 | +$399 +5.3% | 22 |
| 316d | Hunter1207 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,335 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 316d | 0xeccdededcc2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $6,474 | +$459 +7.1% | 22 |
| 316d |  flow-trader-at-optiver2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $5,267 | +$753 +14% | 24 |
| 316d | liuzehong | 240-259 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | +$133 +12% | 24 |
| 316d | liuzehong | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,073 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 316d | mrandom | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,028 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 316d | gereon19642 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $3,904 | +$2,586 +66% | 30 |
| 316d | cigarettes | 260-279 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,297 | +$766 +33% | 28 |
| 316d | Crronz | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,678 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 316d | baba1443 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 28 12:00 PM ET to December 5, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 240-259 means the market gives it about 100%.