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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 100% | +85 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −22 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −41 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −47 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −33 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −40 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 336d |  OuweKletsKoek2 fills | 240-259 | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $2,390 | −$1,130 −47% | — |
| 336d | timeone | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,354 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 336d |  kiki.aoe | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 336d | ghghgghghghghhghghh888 | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,410 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 336d |  ELIENMUSK2 fills | 240-259 | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $2,834 | −$1,197 −42% | — |
| 337d | pbshine | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,996 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | Snipko | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,397 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | Dodo69 | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,395 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | Ocucumber | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,398 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 337d |  MrLucker | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,795 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | 0x265f…a448 | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,497 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | Kalushka | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,266 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d |  ElonSpam | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d | Chepaik | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,997 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d | ltotheog | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $27,083 | −$29 −0.1% | — |
| 337d |  DontGambleKidsPls | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,907 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 337d | DontGambleKidsPls | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,142 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | Baristas | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,152 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d |  Prexpect4 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,005 | +$30 +0.3% | 20 |
| 337d |  burratatata | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,003 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 337d | degenpingg | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $15,539 | −$16 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | burratatata | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,957 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | costcostaff01 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,260 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 337d | internetcapitalmarket | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $12,328 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | Seregan | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,957 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d | anciente | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,325 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 337d | Ofiser | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,069 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d |  Alphax | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,946 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 337d | Mobilc | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,060 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 337d |  APaintnobroke2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,514 | +$23 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d | Puppyz | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d |  GayPride | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $93,861 | +$94 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d | MAGA.ONE29 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $57,941 | +$59 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d |  AgricultureSecretary | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $124,460 | +$486 +0.4% | 20 |
| 337d | influenz.eth5 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,034 | +$31 +0.4% | 20 |
| 337d |  369market2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,145 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 337d | Prexpect | 240-259 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,473 | −$28 −1.1% | — |
| 337d | rnassivecIick2 fills | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,028 | −$51 −0.7% | — |
| 337d | leiger3 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,686 | +$43 +0.3% | 20 |
| 337d | jijishaoxia | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,391 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 337d | fanzong10243 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $36,184 | +$518 +1.4% | 20 |
| 337d | ltotheog | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $27,079 | +$33 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d |  Gustav42 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,734 | +$84 +1.0% | 20 |
| 337d |  Cookedtan2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,690 | +$214 +5.8% | 22 |
| 337d | Cookedtan9 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,518 | +$93 +0.5% | 20 |
| 337d | XZD | 260-279 | SellNo100¢ | $2,533 | −$13 −0.5% | — |
| 337d |  Schizoaffective.On.Acid | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,242 | +$22 +0.3% | 20 |
| 337d |  PredictionYogi | 240-259 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,348 | +$37 +1.1% | 20 |
| 337d | karenkarl | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 337d | lknxt95 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,288 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 337d | Lasdye3421 | 260-279 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,252 | −$18 −1.5% | — |
| 337d | toannhu | 220-239 | SellNo100¢ | $8,974 | −$45 −0.5% | — |
| 337d | cipherpilot3 fills | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,114 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | pc9527 | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,979 | +$21 +0.7% | 20 |
| 337d | 0xeccdededcc2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $18,381 | +$277 +1.5% | 20 |
| 337d | cipherpilot | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,528 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 337d | leiger | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,182 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | Kashif17 | 260-279 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,913 | −$45 −2.4% | — |
| 337d | astromage2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,471 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 337d | Zanshi | 240-259 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,273 | −$47 −3.7% | — |
Chocoflan1,432 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 7 12:00 PM ET to November 14, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 240-259 means the market gives it about 100%.