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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +31 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −22 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d |  upont5 fills | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,153 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 4d |  AndreaPirlo | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,779 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | AndreaPirlo | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,063 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,073 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,015 | +$150 +3.7% | 21 |
| 4d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,732 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 4d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,050 | +$41 +1.0% | 20 |
| 4d | upont2 fills | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,832 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | misaki | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,179 | +$115 +5.3% | 22 |
| 5d | carboyant | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,657 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,445 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | ym-mzt1 | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$64 +6.4% | 22 |
| 5d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,110 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 5d | welcometowinnercircle | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,587 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | zlfi | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,379 | −$25 −0.7% | — |
| 5d | upont | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | upont3 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,369 | +$25 +0.2% | 20 |
| 5d | upont2 fills | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,041 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | upont | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,006 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | Houdray | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,316 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d |  Espagan | 65-89 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | +$117 +9.3% | 22 |
| 6d | onekey02 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,198 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 6d | upont | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,977 | +$32 +0.8% | 20 |
| 6d | zlfi | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,300 | +$104 +3.2% | 21 |
| 6d |  Mei-ji | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,147 | +$11 +0.9% | 20 |
| 6d | CakeBake | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 6d | dddtrips | 40-64 | BuyYes41¢ → 100¢ | $1,503 | +$2,123 +141% | 26 |
| 6d | upont | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,034 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 6d | upont | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,892 | +$108 +0.6% | 20 |
ChunkyMonky297 shares
ithinkthisisloser250 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 10 12:00 PM ET to October 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.