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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | +44 pts | +88 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −3 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −12 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −6 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | +17 pts | +12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −15 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −4 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 350d | homestead | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,647 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 350d | falaflel | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,581 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 350d |  Annica4 fills | 200-219 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $7,247 | −$774 −11% | — |
| 350d |  Gustav43 fills | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 350d | PiEDawg | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,049 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 350d |  danielillo0077 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,465 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 350d |  noreasapa | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $14,991 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 350d | 0xnods | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,645 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 351d | cryptoriser | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,017 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 351d | noreasapa | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,080 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 351d | from1993 | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $28,041 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 351d | billois | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,038 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 351d | glarity2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,586 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 351d | babysue | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,042 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 351d | jjmenezj | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,994 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 351d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,496 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 351d |  MayaGross | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 351d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,496 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 351d |  Prexpect | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,817 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 351d |  PredictionYogi6 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,848 | +$38 +0.4% | 20 |
| 351d | Annica6 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $14,181 | +$910 +6.4% | 22 |
| 351d |  EASY-W | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,753 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 351d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,863 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
| 351d | Gustav4 | 200-219 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,616 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 351d | Annica2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,870 | +$57 +2.0% | 21 |
| 351d | Gustav4 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,683 | +$14 +0.8% | 20 |
| 351d | PredictionYogi | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,211 | +$11 +0.9% | 20 |
| 351d | LCLD | 200-219 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,271 | +$53 +4.2% | 21 |
| 351d |  dope-degen | 200-219 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | +$53 +4.1% | 21 |
| 351d |  Obtio | 220-239 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | −$84 −7.2% | — |
| 351d | PredictionYogi | 200-219 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $5,164 | −$327 −6.3% | — |
| 351d | Prexpect | 200-219 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,058 | −$33 −3.1% | — |
| 351d | lolalis | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$18 +1.2% | 20 |
| 351d |  HTFK | 200-219 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,521 | −$62 −4.1% | — |
| 351d |  Imeancurry | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,551 | +$31 +1.2% | 20 |
| 351d | Mr.kaiji | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,460 | +$18 +1.2% | 20 |
| 351d | slatt123 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,653 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 351d | jinks2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,414 | +$233 +6.8% | 22 |
| 351d | Annica2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,242 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 351d | cryptoriser | 200-219 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,959 | +$61 +3.1% | 21 |
| 351d | over.2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $6,000 | +$327 +5.4% | 22 |
| 351d |  Zzzero | 200-219 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,301 | −$74 −5.7% | — |
| 351d | PredictionYogi | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 351d |  zwxokx | 220-239 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,198 | +$474 +4.2% | 21 |
| 351d | zwxokx | 200-219 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,800 | +$234 +8.4% | 23 |
| 351d | cigarettes4 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,513 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 351d | cigarettes3 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,037 | +$328 +8.1% | 23 |
| 351d | standagain | 200-219 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,208 | +$192 +8.7% | 23 |
| 351d |  ElonSpam | 200-219 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,820 | +$180 +9.9% | 23 |
| 351d | noovd | 200-219 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,135 | +$136 +6.4% | 22 |
| 351d | usernameDream | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,449 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 351d | zyablik52 | 200-219 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,942 | +$169 +8.7% | 23 |
| 351d | 0x552702e9e7969eab6518426a94ab2813d4f36c86 | 240-259 | SellNo100¢ | $1,309 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 351d | 20251021 | 200-219 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,295 | −$113 −8.7% | — |
| 351d | 0x265f…a448 | 200-219 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,301 | −$199 −8.6% | — |
| 351d | pyridin | 200-219 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,789 | +$199 +11% | 23 |
| 351d | MarkMaminghao | 200-219 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,164 | +$129 +11% | 23 |
| 351d | Powerless-Sisterinlaw | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,042 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 351d | crypt0vect0r2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,200 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 351d | ghost3d | 200-219 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $6,012 | +$425 +7.1% | 22 |
🤺Yoon18nom4,658 shares
bigmoneymathew1,125 shares
Snows7Sins1,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 24 12:00 PM ET to October 31, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.