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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | +59 pts | +78 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −14 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −38 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −10 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −14 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −2 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 346d | shahahakswq33 | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,088 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 346d | newitt | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,172 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 346d | XZZD | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,726 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 346d | Doting-Cygnet | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,892 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 346d | WXH | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,113 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 346d |  Annica5 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $12,447 | +$779 +6.3% | 20 |
| 346d |  Prexpect2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $7,776 | +$209 +2.7% | 21 |
| 346d | Annica2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,083 | +$17 +0.4% | 20 |
| 346d | Muskeri2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,031 | +$42 +0.8% | 20 |
| 346d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 200-219 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,894 | −$34 −0.7% | — |
| 346d |  Obtio | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,825 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 346d | Muskeri | 200-219 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$33 +1.8% | 21 |
| 346d | Prexpect | 200-219 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | −$16 −1.6% | — |
| 346d | Barbiedoll1 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,998 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 346d | shahahakswq33 | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 346d | 0x265f…a448 | 200-219 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,488 | −$12 −0.8% | — |
| 346d | daoxinjianding | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,998 | +$20 +0.5% | 20 |
| 346d |  Gustav4 | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,474 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 346d | WXH | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 346d | Donerk | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,986 | +$14 +0.7% | 20 |
| 346d | woshiyeye | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,589 | +$14 +0.9% | 20 |
| 346d | wedemboiz4 fills | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $18,771 | −$19 −0.1% | — |
| 346d | Snipko | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,863 | +$24 +1.3% | 20 |
| 346d | Obtio | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,804 | +$24 +1.3% | 20 |
| 346d | stakeholder | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,265 | +$30 +1.3% | 20 |
| 346d |  ElonSpam | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,624 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 346d |  zwxokx | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,394 | +$34 +1.0% | 20 |
| 346d | Huseynnn | 200-219 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,983 | +$40 +2.0% | 21 |
| 346d | zwxokx | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,544 | +$33 +2.2% | 21 |
| 346d | zwxokx | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,897 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 346d |  ChaeChae | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 346d | cipherpilot | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,971 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 346d | syhxsqq | 200-219 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,844 | −$213 −5.5% | — |
| 346d |  ComingBack | 220-239 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,467 | +$64 +4.3% | 21 |
| 346d |  danielillo0077 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,655 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 346d | 514hgv | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,482 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 346d | 514hgv | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,483 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 346d | hytolie | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,112 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 346d | hikol32 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,051 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 346d | mokiter | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,770 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 346d | jilok | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,773 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 346d | liko55 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,815 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 346d | Galina44 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,762 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 346d | Oksy333 | 220-239 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,123 | +$62 +2.9% | 21 |
| 347d | FanDK | 220-239 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,977 | +$151 +5.1% | 22 |
| 347d | Morf2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$32 +0.6% | 20 |
| 347d | syhxsqq | 200-219 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,794 | +$263 +6.9% | 22 |
| 347d | uglly | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,631 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 347d | Joyous-SignatureNew account | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,089 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 347d | Jaded-HomonymNew account | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,001 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 347d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,596 | +$55 +1.2% | 20 |
| 347d |  UwO2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,122 | +$107 +0.6% | 20 |
| 347d | patient. | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,484 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 347d | shahahakswq33 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,084 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 347d | tomsir | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,045 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 347d | laught | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,648 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 347d | cipherpilot | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,944 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 347d | zwxokx2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,819 | +$37 +1.3% | 20 |
| 347d |  x0000 | 200-219 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,322 | +$198 +15% | 24 |
| 347d | gotcookedsohard | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,174 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
OuchMyBalls8,732 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 28 12:00 PM ET to November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.