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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 100% | +35 pts | +88 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −31 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −4 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −36 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −9 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 392d | Poiuztrewq | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,133 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 392d | ShivaLemire | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,694 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 392d | Atkangaroo | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 393d | ForgetAboutBenjamin | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,066 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d |  Zighy | 240-259 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,110 | −$52 −1.0% | — |
| 393d | ForgetAboutBenjamin | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $78,593 | +$79 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d |  Prexpect3 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $11,757 | +$551 +4.7% | 21 |
| 393d | Old-Fashioned-OutsetNew account | 240-259 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,272 | +$67 +2.0% | 21 |
| 393d |  Annica2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,005 | +$150 +5.0% | 22 |
| 393d | cipherpilot | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,320 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 393d | XZZD | 260-279 | SellNo23¢ → 100¢ | $1,373 | −$4,589 −334% | — |
| 393d |  Sabteekhojayega | 260-279 | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $1,001 | −$1,001 −100% | 30 |
| 393d | xbsuwrkfmdl373 fills | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,368 | −$12 −0.2% | — |
| 393d | BGN | 260-279 | SellNo57¢ → 100¢ | $1,503 | −$1,141 −76% | — |
| 393d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 240-259 | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $2,496 | −$1,052 −42% | — |
| 393d | ShivaLemire | 240-259 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$195 +16% | 25 |
| 393d | Sabteekhojayega | 240-259 | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,405 | −$587 −42% | — |
| 393d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d | cigarettes | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,049 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d | BondiBaddie | 240-259 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,505 | −$95 −6.3% | — |
| 393d |  Elonurmom | 240-259 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,525 | −$97 −6.4% | — |
| 393d | Bubbla | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,738 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 393d | Attractive-Trowel | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,646 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 393d | Old-Fashioned-OutsetNew account | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 393d | astromage | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,204 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d | DoubleKellogs | 220-239 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,302 | +$198 +15% | 24 |
| 393d | HardlandSus2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,973 | +$527 +13% | 24 |
| 393d | HardlandSus2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,514 | +$395 +11% | 23 |
| 393d | XZZD | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,256 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 393d |  Cookedtan | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 393d | Cookedtan | 220-239 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,031 | +$129 +12% | 24 |
| 393d | Dragie | 220-239 | SellNo81¢ → 100¢ | $3,969 | −$930 −23% | — |
| 393d |  monmoney | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,328 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 393d | wokerjoesleeper | 240-259 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | −$208 −19% | — |
| 393d |  jozekwallet5 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,690 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 393d | jozekwallet5 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,693 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d | RickRockRick | 240-259 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | −$163 −16% | — |
| 393d | cigarettes | 260-279 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | +$36 +3.6% | 21 |
| 393d | VoidDan | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,412 | +$18 +1.3% | 20 |
| 393d | VoidDan | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,920 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 393d | DonaldMusk1 | 240-259 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | −$200 −11% | — |
| 393d | Bubbla | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,722 | +$18 +1.1% | 20 |
| 393d | Bubbla | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,726 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 393d |  itachigod | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,901 | +$38 +2.0% | 21 |
| 393d | leiger | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,593 | +$46 +1.0% | 20 |
| 393d | ShivaLemire | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,028 | +$21 +2.0% | 21 |
| 393d |  Oompah..Loompah | 220-239 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $6,580 | +$420 +6.4% | 22 |
| 393d | xbsuwrkfmdl374 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,182 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d | Rogu | 240-259 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,474 | +$314 +21% | 25 |
| 393d | Dragie | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,853 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 393d | Atkangaroo | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d | Dragie3 fills | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,138 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 393d | Snoper2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,943 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 393d | Gamble.and.bankurpt | 220-239 | SellNo62¢ → 100¢ | $2,266 | −$1,367 −60% | — |
| 393d | Bubbla | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,425 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 393d | locuspm | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,495 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 393d | locuspm | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 393d | LazyWanker | 240-259 | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $1,471 | −$1,130 −77% | — |
| 393d | leiger | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,141 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 393d |  CavaSoTasty | 220-239 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,713 | +$287 +17% | 24 |
CavaSoTasty12,125 shares
vamnizar210 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 12 12:00 PM ET to September 19, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 240-259 means the market gives it about 100%.