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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +52 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −24 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37d | jabali-furioso | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,215 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 38d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,581 | +$44 +0.8% | 20 |
| 38d | beatyesterday2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,413 | +$19 +0.2% | 20 |
| 38d | beatyesterday | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,780 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 38d |  PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 38d | 0x1d94…80da | 65-89 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,194 | −$146 −12% | — |
| 38d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,180 | +$90 +2.8% | 21 |
| 38d | zhenni | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 38d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,625 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 38d |  Mei-ji | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,063 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 38d | 0xf14e…6173 | 65-89 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,569 | +$165 +11% | 23 |
| 38d | 0xf14e…6173 | 40-64 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$216 +11% | 23 |
| 38d | CakeBake | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 38d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,804 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 38d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,092 | +$19 +0.9% | 20 |
| 38d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,775 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 38d | froku | 65-89 | BuyYes58¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 28 |
| 38d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,042 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 38d |  upont | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,750 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 38d | upont | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,385 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 39d |  leleko2k | <40 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$37 +2.5% | 20 |
| 39d | CakeBake | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,970 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d |  stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,475 | +$334 +23% | 23 |
| 40d | Mei-ji | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,986 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 40d | dddtrips | <40 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$240 +22% | 23 |
dz1ft43,930 shares
NBALOL677 shares
atoutlemonde497 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.