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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $300M | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 440d |
| $200M | 100% | +15 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $400M | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 440d |
| $50M | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $1B | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 440d |
| $500M | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 440d |
| $700M | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 440d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 246d |  0xjames | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $4,240 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 246d | Gnomik3 | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,028 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 246d | rovad | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,088 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 246d |  youngsoros2 fills | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,050 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | Laurenman2 fills | $200M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,503 | +$40 +0.7% | 2 |
| 246d | Laurenman | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,237 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | Laurenman | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,761 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | ishakeyourbets2 fills | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,680 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 246d | crisii | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,909 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | crisii | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,303 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 246d | CallmeKaty | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,976 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | 0x15ce9A512F0d4475ABb6DbA71ae702E2Dc17032 fills | $200M | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,033 | −$544 −18% | — |
| 246d | h00neyballzsports | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,020 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 246d | gmfineshy | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,422 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 246d | h00neybal | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,341 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 246d | gamblito | $200M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$33 +1.6% | 2 |
| 246d | Muzhiiii | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | +$5 +0.5% | 2 |
| 246d | roflingbets2 fills | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | dmg | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,465 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | tilt.proof2 fills | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,570 | +$7 +0.3% | 2 |
| 246d | tilt.proof | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,990 | −$10 −0.5% | — |
| 246d | dumbest-person-on-earth | $400M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,001 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 246d | 0xjames | $200M | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,379 | +$568 +41% | 2 |
| 246d |  PapaCurio | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,454 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | wwwwew | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,795 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | Tuuza | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,137 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | KURAKAO | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,110 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 246d | vcgj8 | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,442 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | leoleo2 | $400M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,540 | +$9 +0.6% | 2 |
| 246d | Voron | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,041 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | Adaatje | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,011 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | mustery | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,745 | +$5 +0.3% | 2 |
| 246d | jiifp | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,780 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | cxxrty | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,106 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | PAPALOLO | $500M | BuyNo100¢ | $2,609 | +$13 +0.5% | 2 |
| 246d |  inrvoice | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,181 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 246d | BigBossBowser | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,295 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 246d | guccigopnik | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,277 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | bigricke | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | kevin-airdrop | $300M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,202 | +$66 +5.5% | 2 |
| 246d | kevin-airdrop | $400M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,320 | +$24 +1.1% | 2 |
| 247d | ponderinglong | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,694 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 247d | highlows | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,694 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 247d | gamblito | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$10 +0.5% | 2 |
| 247d |  Mollytrading | $200M | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | −$122 −10% | — |
| 247d | jimmyhasballs | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,930 | +$14 +0.5% | 2 |
| 247d | jimmyhasballs | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$14 +1.1% | 2 |
| 247d |  Zaratustra | $50M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,058 | +$6 +0.6% | 2 |
| 247d | sirramfly900302 | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,010 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 247d |  zeroprobability | $400M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$72 +3.6% | 2 |
| 247d |  yujine1214 | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,666 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 247d | jackgu05104 fills | $200M | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $5,639 | +$1,713 +30% | 2 |
| 247d | 1881aa2 fills | $100M | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,580 | +$128 +5.0% | 2 |
| 247d | Adelius | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,557 | +$6 +0.4% | 2 |
| 247d | rusgreat | $700M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | +$13 +1.1% | 2 |
| 247d | RITELION | $400M | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | −$87 −7.5% | — |
| 247d | trungminh1232 fills | $100M | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,924 | +$215 +5.5% | 2 |
| 248d | Muzhiiii | $100M | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,377 | +$107 +7.7% | 2 |
| 248d | 0x15ce9A512F0d4475ABb6DbA71ae702E2Dc1703 | $100M | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,462 | +$139 +9.5% | 2 |
| 248d |  shadow54 | $1B | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,344 | −$16 −1.2% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Espresso's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Espresso (https://x.com/espressoFNDN) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $100M means the market gives it about 100%.