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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 33% | +4 pts | −3 pts | 30¢ · 35¢ (5¢) | — | in 441d |
| $100M | 21% | −2 pts | −6 pts | 19¢ · 22¢ (3¢) | — | in 441d |
| $2B | 3% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | — | in 441d |
| $200M | 21% | +2 pts | −3 pts | 19¢ · 23¢ (4¢) | — | in 441d |
| $800M | 5% | — | +1 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $1B | 6% | 0 pts | +3 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $300M | 12% | — | +1 pts | 11¢ · 13¢ (2¢) | — | in 441d |
| $500M | 5% | −1 pts | −2 pts | 3¢ · 7¢ (4¢) | $814 | in 441d |
| $600M | 5% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $25M | 44% | −6 pts | −17 pts | 36¢ · 51¢ (15¢) | $170 | in 441d |
| $400M | 11% | — | −1 pts | 10¢ · 12¢ (2¢) | $112 | in 441d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 132d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e424562 | $25M | BuyYes65¢ → 44¢ | $2,322 | −$762 −33% | 7 |
| 184d | kirwiswiemi | $500M | BuyYes42¢ → 5¢ | $1,925 | −$1,705 −89% | 8 |
2B9S103 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 33¢ for $50M means the market gives it about 33%.