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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M | 19% | −1 pts | −4 pts | 18¢ · 19¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| $3B | 2% | — | −1 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| $1B | 7% | +2 pts | +2 pts | 7¢ · 7¢ (<1¢) | $358 | in 75d |
| $300M | 39% | — | −6 pts | 38¢ · 39¢ (1¢) | $263 | in 75d |
| $800M | 11% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | $125 | in 75d |
| $150M | 66% | −1 pts | −2 pts | 64¢ · 67¢ (3¢) | $89.1 | in 75d |
| $2B | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | $0.46 | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d |  gatonekki | $300M | SellNo57¢ → 62¢ | $1,147 | −$83 −7.2% | — |
| 15d | retokloreretpo | $500M | SellYes20¢ → 19¢ | $10,886 | +$721 +6.6% | — |
| 15d | MegaKong | $150M | BuyYes55¢ → 66¢ | $1,270 | +$242 +19% | 7 |
| 15d | 12863 | $150M | SellYes43¢ → 66¢ | $1,647 | −$885 −54% | — |
| 16d | tryingmyluckhere3 fills | $500M | BuyNo71¢ → 82¢ | $6,350 | +$939 +15% | 2 |
| 18d | insiderrzzz7 fills | $300M | BuyNo60¢ → 62¢ | $25,348 | +$501 +2.0% | 7 |
| 25d |  alanhutton3 fills | $300M | SellNo55¢ → 62¢ | $4,298 | −$499 −12% | — |
| 26d | 0xc67c310db8677fdbb360ba40eeecb6690c809ad5 | $150M | SellYes74¢ → 66¢ | $1,012 | +$117 +12% | — |
| 26d | alanhutton2 fills | $500M | SellNo81¢ → 82¢ | $4,259 | −$21 −0.5% | — |
| 26d | Rickz88 | $500M | SellNo76¢ → 82¢ | $1,241 | −$90 −7.2% | — |
| 27d | purplegatto2 fills | $300M | BuyNo62¢ | $6,171 | −$46 −0.8% | 7 |
| 28d |  benjaversee | $300M | BuyYes42¢ → 39¢ | $1,000 | −$94 −9.4% | 7 |
| 29d | KishoAriiii | $300M | BuyNo59¢ → 62¢ | $1,150 | +$49 +4.2% | 7 |
| 32d | cosmicmicrowavebackground2 fills | $500M | SellNo81¢ → 82¢ | $6,348 | −$16 −0.2% | — |
| 34d | thugstrade | $500M | SellYes14¢ → 19¢ | $1,119 | −$392 −35% | — |
| 49d |  alphaalii2 fills | $150M | SellYes56¢ → 66¢ | $2,410 | −$385 −16% | — |
| 54d | Kl1023yx3 fills | $500M | SellYes15¢ → 19¢ | $9,088 | −$2,012 −22% | — |
| 55d |  Zarshka | $150M | BuyNo57¢ → 35¢ | $1,833 | −$716 −39% | 7 |
| 56d | alanhutton3 fills | $150M | BuyNo49¢ → 35¢ | $5,051 | −$1,526 −30% | 7 |
| 56d | alanhutton5 fills | $300M | BuyNo69¢ → 62¢ | $6,914 | −$764 −11% | 7 |
| 56d | Kl1023yx17 fills | $300M | SellYes37¢ → 39¢ | $72,853 | −$3,652 −5.0% | — |
| 57d | Winged-Kiss | $150M | SellNo29¢ → 35¢ | $1,447 | −$303 −21% | — |
| 57d | liquidityp00l2 fills | $150M | SellNo23¢ → 35¢ | $5,081 | −$2,509 −49% | — |
| 59d | Malvix | $300M | SellNo65¢ → 62¢ | $2,403 | +$146 +6.1% | — |
| 61d | tryingmyluckhere | $150M | SellYes72¢ → 66¢ | $1,154 | +$104 +9.0% | — |
| 62d | Kl1023yx15 fills | $150M | SellYes71¢ → 66¢ | $84,818 | +$6,969 +8.2% | — |
| 64d | Winged-Kiss | $300M | SellNo63¢ → 62¢ | $1,134 | +$19 +1.7% | — |
| 65d | Kl1023yx18 fills | $150M | BuyYes73¢ → 66¢ | $46,598 | −$4,868 −10% | 6 |
| 65d | thugstrade | $300M | SellYes33¢ → 39¢ | $1,683 | −$251 −15% | — |
| 65d | Laurenman | $1B | SellNo96¢ → 93¢ | $1,252 | +$39 +3.1% | — |
| 70d | liquidityp00l | $300M | SellNo57¢ → 62¢ | $6,210 | −$490 −7.9% | — |
| 72d | Masol2 fills | $800M | BuyNo91¢ → 90¢ | $4,700 | −$99 −2.1% | 3 |
| 72d | Tipsterman | $1B | BuyNo96¢ → 93¢ | $1,632 | −$43 −2.7% | 3 |
| 76d | Kl1023yx37 fills | $300M | BuyYes46¢ → 39¢ | $104,220 | −$16,945 −16% | 11 |
| 86d | Laurenman | $3B | SellNo98¢ | $1,221 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 90d | paul4543 | $500M | SellNo73¢ → 82¢ | $1,029 | −$117 −11% | — |
| 92d | Crisp-Ephemera | $500M | SellNo79¢ → 82¢ | $1,206 | −$38 −3.2% | — |
| 97d | jimmyjpeg | $800M | SellNo86¢ → 90¢ | $2,376 | −$108 −4.5% | — |
| 97d | jimmyjpeg | $500M | SellNo71¢ → 82¢ | $1,319 | −$190 −14% | — |
| 97d | jimmyjpeg | $1B | SellNo93¢ | $1,262 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 98d | Laurenman | $3B | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,052 | +$15 +1.4% | 2 |
| 98d | 0xaddb…51ad2 fills | $300M | SellYes49¢ → 39¢ | $5,129 | +$1,060 +21% | — |
| 103d |  AmirsadeghSa | $500M | SellNo68¢ → 82¢ | $1,192 | −$237 −20% | — |
| 106d | liquidityp00l2 fills | $150M | BuyNo21¢ → 35¢ | $2,510 | +$1,572 +63% | 12 |
| 107d | gggg5 | $150M | BuyYes79¢ → 66¢ | $1,200 | −$207 −17% | 5 |
| 107d | YYY55 | $300M | BuyYes49¢ → 39¢ | $1,274 | −$273 −21% | 7 |
| 107d | retokloreretpo | $500M | BuyYes34¢ → 19¢ | $2,240 | −$1,008 −45% | 5 |
| 107d | BetterHold | $300M | BuyYes49¢ → 39¢ | $2,916 | −$618 −21% | 7 |
| 107d | EP10 | $150M | BuyYes77¢ → 66¢ | $3,080 | −$460 −15% | 6 |
| 107d | Rickz88 | $300M | SellNo53¢ → 62¢ | $1,701 | −$273 −16% | — |
| 119d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e4245622 fills | $500M | SellNo71¢ → 82¢ | $5,467 | −$832 −15% | — |
| 119d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e4245622 fills | $300M | SellNo51¢ → 62¢ | $7,205 | −$1,428 −20% | — |
| 121d | tradexplorer | $300M | BuyNo51¢ → 62¢ | $1,868 | +$385 +21% | 7 |
| 121d | pp101 | $500M | BuyNo70¢ → 82¢ | $1,138 | +$187 +16% | 2 |
| 123d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e4245622 fills | $500M | BuyNo74¢ → 82¢ | $2,034 | +$215 +11% | 2 |
| 123d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e424562 | $300M | BuyNo60¢ → 62¢ | $6,778 | +$209 +3.1% | 7 |
| 126d |  Hyperlong3 fills | $300M | BuyNo63¢ → 62¢ | $5,373 | −$103 −1.9% | 7 |
| 130d | 0xaddb…51ad2 fills | $300M | BuyYes42¢ → 39¢ | $5,996 | −$559 −9.3% | 10 |
| 131d | Sylvertrades | $800M | BuyNo89¢ → 90¢ | $4,973 | +$13 +0.3% | 4 |
| 131d | imjustalarp | $150M | BuyYes70¢ → 66¢ | $1,059 | −$68 −6.4% | 7 |
fleeth80,000 shares
NeverYES40,274 shares
Arkgetsu7,864 sharesalanhutton6,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 19¢ for $500M means the market gives it about 19%.