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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300M | 100% | +3 pts | +15 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| $700M | 0% | −4 pts | −35 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $1B | 0% | −1 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $2B | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $3B | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $500M | 0% | −32 pts | −59 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 273d |  massimoxbt | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $4,426 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | orzbig | $700M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,247 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 273d |  0xsanji | $700M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,905 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | 0xsanji | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,423 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | wistar | $700M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,387 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 273d |  berboche | $700M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,723 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 273d |  trix.2 fills | $500M | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $12,857 | −$226 −1.8% | — |
| 273d | pg1313 | $300M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,191 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | dube | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $10,848 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | tsekinming015 fills | $300M | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $23,560 | +$1,017 +4.3% | 2 |
| 273d |  isunou | $300M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,256 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | tsekinming01 | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $45,607 | +$46 +0.1% | 2 |
| 273d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,295 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 273d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,287 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 273d | jimmyhasballs | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,130 | +$15 +0.2% | 2 |
| 273d | isunou3 fills | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,947 | +$26 +0.4% | 2 |
| 273d | sybaujustbet | $700M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,411 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 273d | beaned1108 | $300M | SellYes>99¢ | $2,525 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 273d | runnon | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,924 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 273d | rekkless | $300M | SellYes>99¢ | $4,106 | −$19 −0.5% | — |
| 273d |  temafloram | $700M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,018 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 273d |  oshikurou | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,452 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 273d | Stingy-Gingerbread | $300M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,886 | −$38 −1.0% | — |
| 273d | jay77888888 | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,195 | +$6 +0.5% | 2 |
| 273d | toanhtoanh | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,593 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 273d | oshikurou | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $10,058 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | mlinw3 fills | $700M | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $7,075 | −$771 −11% | — |
| 273d | ADancrypto | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,512 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 273d | trix.3 fills | $500M | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,221 | +$521 +4.6% | 2 |
| 273d |  bjbjs | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,236 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | deepmouse | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,500 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | deepmouse | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,550 | +$8 +0.3% | 2 |
| 273d |  invers | $500M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,944 | −$20 −1.0% | — |
| 273d | sportbetss2 fills | $300M | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,790 | +$210 +5.5% | 2 |
| 273d |  PROValueBetting | $700M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,033 | −$17 −0.5% | — |
| 273d | xx.eth | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $7,157 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | tsekinming015 fills | $300M | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $16,872 | −$862 −5.1% | — |
| 274d |  Daskert | $300M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,274 | +$7 +0.5% | 2 |
| 274d | Daskert2 fills | $2B | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,498 | −$52 −2.1% | — |
| 274d | cgvs | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,421 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | vxf | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,217 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | btacc | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,643 | +$23 +1.4% | 2 |
| 274d | QQ088 | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,500 | +$11 +0.4% | 2 |
| 274d | dube | $500M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,676 | +$183 +1.7% | 2 |
| 274d | birjesh | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,472 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | hackisamaze | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,694 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | Prime-Killing | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,134 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 274d | lontou | $300M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | −$50 −1.0% | — |
| 274d | deepmouse | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,500 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 274d |  Cointraders | $700M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,239 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 274d | Cointraders | $300M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,974 | −$26 −1.3% | — |
| 274d | Owen2046 | $500M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | +$30 +2.9% | 2 |
| 274d | ace | $500M | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | −$36 −3.4% | — |
| 274d | bjbjs | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 274d | bjbjs | $2B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,287 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | Gimmaer | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,000 | +$16 +0.1% | 2 |
| 274d | trix. | $700M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,068 | −$30 −1.5% | — |
| 274d | alkoaleks | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,387 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 274d | Extravaganza123 | $500M | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,902 | +$195 +4.0% | 2 |
| 274d |  nansuu | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $9,020 | −$28 −0.3% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fogo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fogo (https://x.com/fogo/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $300M means the market gives it about 100%.