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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$1b / No token in 2024 | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| $1-2b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| $2-3b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| $3-4b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| $4-5b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| >$10b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| $5-10b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 896d | undertaker | $4-5b | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,159 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 896d | undertaker | $3-4b | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,159 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 896d | undertaker | $5-10b | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,159 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 896d | undertaker | $2-3b | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,159 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 896d | undertaker | $1-2b | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,158 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 896d | undertaker | >$10b | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,159 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 896d | <$1b / No token in 2024 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,156 | +$3 +0.3% | 2 | |
| 896d | EscalateFund | <$1b / No token in 2024 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | +$13 +1.1% | 2 |
| 896d | <$1b / No token in 2024 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,564 | −$85 −5.5% | — | |
| 897d | $3-4b | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | −$11 −0.9% | — | |
| 897d | <$1b / No token in 2024 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,645 | −$124 −4.7% | — | |
| 897d | $3-4b | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$12 +1.0% | 2 | |
| 897d | $5-10b | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $4,162 | +$521 +13% | 2 | |
| 900d | 123d | $5-10b | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,900 | +$434 +15% | 2 |
| 900d | <$1b / No token in 2024 | SellNo60¢ → 0¢ | $1,748 | +$1,748 +100% | — | |
| 901d | <$1b / No token in 2024 | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $1,559 | −$1,559 −100% | 3 | |
| 901d | <$1b / No token in 2024 | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $2,306 | −$2,306 −100% | 3 | |
| 905d | Atsui | >$10b | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,521 | +$264 +7.5% | 2 |
| 918d | Argh | >$10b | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,393 | +$138 +9.9% | 2 |
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Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <$1b / No token in 2024 means the market gives it about 100%.