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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1B | 0% | −11 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 440d |
| $300M | 100% | +11 pts | +82 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $500M | 100% | +50 pts | +95 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $100M | 100% | +2 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $200M | 100% | +5 pts | +60 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $20M | 100% | 0 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $50M | 100% | 0 pts | +12 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $80M | 100% | +1 pts | +19 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 185d | Geniusmoon | $500M | SellYes>99¢ | $2,060 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 185d | Geniusmoon4 fills | $300M | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $18,193 | −$630 −3.5% | — |
| 185d | aji11 | $500M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,004 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 185d | pepewtf | $500M | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,187 | +$7 +0.1% | 2 |
| 185d |  abhionpoly | $500M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,999 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 |
| 185d | hhjkko | $500M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,105 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 185d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,378 | +$28 +0.2% | 2 |
| 185d | agrarward | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,320 | +$8 +0.1% | 2 |
| 185d | HolyPredict | $500M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,028 | +$5 +0.5% | 2 |
| 185d | xiaoxue6731 | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,308 | +$10 +0.1% | 2 |
| 185d | HolyPredict | $300M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,029 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 185d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,135 | +$15 +0.1% | 2 |
| 185d | Cactus-0012 fills | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,980 | +$12 +0.2% | 2 |
| 185d | bean125 | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,592 | +$19 +0.2% | 2 |
| 185d | bean125 | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,999 | +$10 +0.1% | 2 |
| 185d | shuangming1219 | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,918 | +$6 +0.3% | 2 |
| 185d |  VoidEclipse2 fills | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,078 | +$27 +0.4% | 2 |
| 185d | VoidEclipse | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $21,261 | +$21 +0.1% | 2 |
| 186d | shuangming1219 | $300M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,348 | −$14 −0.6% | — |
| 186d |  leleko2k | $1B | BuyNo100¢ | $1,215 | +$6 +0.5% | 2 |
| 186d | xiaoxue6731 | $300M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,069 | −$12 −0.6% | — |
| 186d | TaiwanNumbaWan | $500M | SellYes30¢ → 100¢ | $3,722 | −$8,683 −233% | — |
| 186d | streetdebt | $300M | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,829 | −$35 −1.9% | — |
| 186d | 1881aa2 fills | $1B | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,610 | +$48 +1.8% | 2 |
| 186d | streetdebt | $300M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,872 | +$15 +0.8% | 2 |
| 186d | yeweiyang | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,501 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 186d |  elmcap2 | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,865 | +$13 +0.1% | 2 |
| 186d | elmcap2 | $80M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,675 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 186d |  DSMarker | $80M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,457 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 186d | NewNameWhoThis | $500M | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,532 | +$494 +32% | 2 |
| 186d | xuejiao3 fills | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,241 | +$87 +1.4% | 2 |
| 186d | sjd | $1B | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,183 | −$29 −2.5% | — |
| 186d | xuejiao | $300M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,595 | +$36 +1.0% | 2 |
| 186d |  duhao | $500M | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,864 | +$727 +39% | 2 |
| 186d | shuangming12192 fills | $300M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,472 | +$38 +1.1% | 2 |
| 186d | shuangming1219 | $80M | SellYes>99¢ | $2,037 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 186d | duhao | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $4,379 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 186d | 6161friends | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,313 | +$10 +0.1% | 2 |
| 186d | ruyi666 | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,988 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 186d | HolyPredict | $300M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$11 +1.1% | 2 |
| 186d | HolyPredict | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,020 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 186d | 6161friends | $1B | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,478 | +$105 +1.6% | 2 |
| 186d | jetLLLLLLLL2 fills | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,010 | +$16 +0.1% | 2 |
| 186d | hunt2049 | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,384 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 186d | odifof4 fills | $300M | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $11,036 | +$507 +4.6% | 2 |
| 186d | 1881aa2 fills | $1B | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,297 | −$102 −2.4% | — |
| 186d | 1881aa4 fills | $300M | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $7,224 | +$557 +7.7% | 2 |
| 186d | shuangming1219 | $200M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,230 | +$59 +0.8% | 2 |
| 186d | Geniusmoon | $200M | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,854 | −$48 −2.6% | — |
| 186d | hunt2049 | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,031 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 186d | streetdebt | $1B | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,814 | −$16 −0.9% | — |
| 186d | TaiwanNumbaWan | $200M | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $8,511 | −$368 −4.3% | — |
| 186d | TaiwanNumbaWan | $300M | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $8,660 | −$1,316 −15% | — |
| 186d | Rks99 | $300M | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,133 | −$57 −5.0% | — |
| 186d | streetdebt | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,805 | +$24 +1.3% | 2 |
| 186d | shibagege | $20M | SellYes>99¢ | $3,356 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | yulen5 fills | $1B | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $17,068 | +$684 +4.0% | 2 |
| 186d | yulen2 fills | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $11,047 | −$31 −0.3% | — |
| 186d | reeeeeeeeeeeeeeee | $80M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,718 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 186d | donotcopytradethis | $80M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,354 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Genius's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Genius will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Genius (https://x.com/GeniusTerminal) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for $1B means the market gives it about 0%.