Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Spencer - Green Party | 100% | +3 pts | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Amanda Gardner – Green Party | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Zia Yusuf – Reform UK | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candidate J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Lee Moffitt – Reform UK | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jonathan Gullis – Reform UK | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candidate I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Zack Polanski – Green Party | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Angeliki Stogia - Labour | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jackie Pearcy - Lib Dems | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candidate D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Matt Goodwin - Reform | 0% | −3 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Bev Craig - Labour | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Andy Burnham - Labour | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candidate K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Will Candidate L win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 232d | Asphaleios | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 232d |  VoidEclipse | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | SellYes>99¢ | $9,843 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 232d | Rigid-BassinetNew account | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,012 | +$2 +0.2% | 10 |
| 232d |  148572738484 | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,791 | +$5 +0.1% | 10 |
| 232d | conotocaurius | Angeliki Stogia - Labour | SellNo>99¢ | $1,161 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 232d | kcnyekchno7 fills | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $18,381 | +$6,416 +35% | 12 |
| 232d | 246456546gdfgtg | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | +$38 +3.6% | 10 |
| 232d | luckystrike20 | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,562 | +$62 +4.0% | 10 |
| 232d | influenz.eth | Angeliki Stogia - Labour | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,802 | +$4 +0.2% | 10 |
| 232d | influenz.eth | Matt Goodwin - Reform | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,714 | +$90 +5.3% | 10 |
| 232d |  macrosteaks | Angeliki Stogia - Labour | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,355 | −$89 −2.0% | — |
| 232d | rdba | Angeliki Stogia - Labour | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,639 | +$190 +12% | 10 |
| 232d | weirdmoon3 | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,051 | +$455 +43% | 10 |
| 233d |  nnimrodd | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,048 | −$452 −43% | — |
| 233d | AJM964 fills | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyNo32¢ → 0¢ | $6,927 | −$6,927 −100% | 21 |
| 233d | fearforwifey | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$478 +48% | 10 |
| 233d |  cynical.reason | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,480 | +$762 +52% | 20 |
| 233d |  tunatyler | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,320 | +$680 +52% | 20 |
| 234d | ultra-violence | Angeliki Stogia - Labour | BuyYes24¢ → 0¢ | $1,400 | −$1,400 −100% | 20 |
| 234d | ultra-violence | Matt Goodwin - Reform | BuyYes25¢ → 0¢ | $1,800 | −$1,800 −100% | 21 |
| 234d | Asphaleios | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | +$603 +49% | 18 |
| 234d |  ydxistheking | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | +$759 +56% | 15 |
| 234d | BluesRz246312 | Angeliki Stogia - Labour | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,680 | +$320 +19% | 13 |
| 235d | scrapbook2 fills | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $2,516 | −$1,184 −47% | — |
| 235d |  ocpna | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $2,287 | −$1,150 −50% | — |
| 235d | ocpna | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $4,272 | +$2,123 +50% | 15 |
| 235d | CiaoBilly | Angeliki Stogia - Labour | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,532 | +$163 +11% | 12 |
| 236d | GGGUESSER | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyNo29¢ → 0¢ | $1,448 | −$1,448 −100% | 16 |
| 236d | nnimrodd | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | +$412 +35% | 14 |
| 236d | immanuelcan | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $2,816 | +$1,095 +39% | 15 |
| 237d | kcnyekchno | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $2,329 | −$1,031 −44% | — |
| 237d |  RossGueller | Angeliki Stogia - Labour | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,265 | +$89 +7.1% | 10 |
| 242d | JengaBlocks | Angeliki Stogia - Labour | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,999 | +$158 +7.9% | 10 |
| 246d |  p1252 | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | +$482 +47% | 10 |
| 251d | educated | Matt Goodwin - Reform | BuyYes42¢ → 0¢ | $1,178 | −$1,178 −100% | 10 |
| 253d |  DyorSports | Andy Burnham - Labour | SellNo>99¢ | $4,990 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 256d | macrosteaks | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $1,435 | −$1,435 −100% | 10 |
| 261d |  theta-thunberg | Andy Burnham - Labour | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $9,930 | +$4,462 +45% | 10 |
| 262d | DyorSports | Andy Burnham - Labour | BuyNo66¢ → 100¢ | $3,300 | +$1,700 +52% | 10 |
AngryRhino3,000 sharesThe Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election is currently scheduled for February 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester. If the election results are not clear by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Any change in party affiliation will not affect the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Manchester City Council (https://www.manchester.gov.uk/elections).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Hannah Spencer - Green Party means the market gives it about 100%.