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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| June 30, 2026 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| March 31, 2026 | 0% | +1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200d |  Xeny2 fills | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,171 | +$99 +1.1% | 20 |
| 209d |  The-Joker | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,470 | +$20 +1.4% | 20 |
| 251d | lisra | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$97 +9.4% | 20 |
| 290d |  Alphax | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,067 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 290d |  Oompa-Loompa | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,307 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 290d | ananab | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes67¢ → 0¢ | $1,585 | −$1,585 −100% | 20 |
| 300d | nostradamust | December 31, 2025 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 300d |  CoffeeLover | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,490 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 300d | ananab | December 31, 2025 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,460 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 303d | 4e2fbc2acf | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,218 | +$27 +0.8% | 20 |
| 312d |  lmtfalone | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,954 | +$32 +1.1% | 20 |
| 313d |  Justitia | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 333d | dfadffdafs | December 31, 2025 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,255 | −$132 −10% | — |
| 334d | ananab2 fills | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,586 | +$419 +9.1% | 20 |
| 337d | dfadffdafs | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,507 | +$110 +7.3% | 20 |
| 337d |  Patroclus | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,556 | +$252 +16% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for December 31, 2025 means the market gives it about 0%.