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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200M | 100% | +24 pts | +12 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $100M | 100% | +3 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $300M | 0% | −27 pts | −67 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $50M | 100% | 0 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $500M | 0% | −3 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $1B | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $800M | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $250M | 100% | +45 pts | +25 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $150M | 100% | +4 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $600M | 0% | −3 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $350M | 0% | −15 pts | −54 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $400M | 0% | −11 pts | −41 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $450M | 0% | −5 pts | −47 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $550M | 0% | −23 pts | −47 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77d |  abhionpoly | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,088 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 77d | abhionpoly | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,385 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 77d | abhionpoly2 fills | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $28,707 | +$30 +0.1% | 2 |
| 77d |  cr1mean | $250M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,597 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 77d | abhionpoly | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,301 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 77d | abhionpoly | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,986 | +$10 +0.1% | 2 |
| 77d | tphhh | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,637 | +$17 +0.2% | 2 |
| 77d | redpanda1354 fills | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,661 | +$14 +0.3% | 2 |
| 77d | Intelligent-Adulthood | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,900 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 77d | Runner109 | $300M | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,719 | +$604 +35% | 2 |
| 77d | redpanda135 | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,487 | +$14 +0.3% | 2 |
| 77d | btcabal | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,147 | +$3 +0.3% | 2 |
| 77d | hgfdhgf3 | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,000 | +$23 +0.3% | 2 |
| 77d | whackyy | $200M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,737 | +$54 +3.1% | 2 |
| 77d | whackyy | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,740 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
| 77d | bulbz2 fills | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,967 | +$33 +0.3% | 2 |
| 77d | Tianhe | $200M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,053 | +$34 +3.2% | 2 |
| 78d |  leleko2k | $200M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,600 | +$84 +3.2% | 2 |
| 78d | LIUXIANGTAO | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,451 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 78d | 0xtear | $200M | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,457 | −$278 −11% | — |
| 78d | bulbz | $200M | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,568 | +$188 +5.3% | 2 |
| 78d |  hack-vc2 fills | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,286 | +$16 +0.2% | 2 |
| 78d | 1881aa | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,525 | +$15 +1.0% | 2 |
| 78d | Noteagle | $100M | BuyYes100¢ | $1,332 | +$7 +0.5% | 2 |
| 78d | sobaka.yebaka | $300M | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $2,455 | +$616 +25% | 2 |
| 78d |  Albedo00 | $100M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,369 | +$8 +0.6% | 2 |
| 78d | Moonshot1019 | $200M | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,898 | +$102 +5.4% | 2 |
| 78d | hack-vc | $150M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,795 | +$20 +1.1% | 2 |
| 78d | sobaka.yebaka | $200M | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,856 | +$150 +5.3% | 2 |
| 78d | No-89757 | $100M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,634 | +$20 +1.2% | 2 |
| 78d | ppking2 | $200M | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $6,175 | +$325 +5.3% | 2 |
| 78d | whackyy | $100M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,709 | +$38 +2.2% | 2 |
| 78d | BaoC3 fills | $300M | BuyYes53¢ → 0¢ | $4,945 | −$4,945 −100% | 2 |
| 78d | hack-vc | $100M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,844 | +$99 +2.6% | 2 |
| 78d | 999ssf | $100M | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | −$40 −3.1% | — |
| 78d |  Jiang2025 | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,006 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 78d | ppobb1123 | $100M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,908 | +$183 +3.1% | 2 |
| 78d |  bau7 | $1B | SellNo100¢ | $1,006 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 79d | btcabal | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,028 | +$10 +1.0% | 2 |
| 79d | wakakakakakaka | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$15 +1.0% | 2 |
| 79d |  alphaalii4 fills | $200M | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $9,092 | −$1,440 −16% | — |
| 79d | cr1mean | $300M | BuyYes34¢ → 0¢ | $1,055 | −$1,055 −100% | 2 |
| 79d | redpanda135 | $800M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,875 | +$49 +2.6% | 2 |
| 79d | 1881aa2 fills | $200M | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,382 | +$265 +11% | 2 |
| 79d | redpanda135 | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,108 | +$31 +1.5% | 2 |
| 79d |  fleeth | $150M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,454 | +$46 +3.2% | 2 |
| 79d | fleeth | $100M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,949 | +$51 +1.0% | 2 |
| 79d | 999ssf | $100M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,286 | +$14 +1.1% | 2 |
| 80d | LULLULU2 fills | $300M | BuyYes72¢ → 0¢ | $2,900 | −$2,900 −100% | 2 |
| 81d |  alanhutton2 fills | $200M | SellNo21¢ → 0¢ | $2,700 | +$2,700 +100% | — |
| 81d | TommyKFCV50 | $100M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,391 | +$74 +3.1% | 2 |
| 81d | BaoC | $500M | BuyYes30¢ → 0¢ | $1,109 | −$1,109 −100% | 2 |
| 81d | alphaalii6 fills | $200M | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $11,212 | +$1,975 +18% | 2 |
| 81d | njhkhjlbjh | $100M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | +$41 +3.5% | 2 |
| 81d |  justdoit0 | $100M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,317 | +$46 +3.5% | 2 |
| 82d | peaceworldgo | $100M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,201 | +$42 +3.5% | 2 |
| 82d | whocome995 | $100M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | +$39 +3.5% | 2 |
| 82d | 999ssf4 fills | $50M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $12,852 | +$157 +1.2% | 2 |
| 85d | Eulaliabrown | $100M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | +$37 +3.5% | 2 |
| 85d | kaiajerry | $100M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,154 | +$41 +3.5% | 2 |
labistiiia1,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $200M means the market gives it about 100%.