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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25M | 0% | −1 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $50M | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $15M | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $100M | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $200M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $8M | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300d |  MUFAi | $8M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,579 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 300d | yougotme | $8M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,359 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 300d | sleepin | $15M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,606 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 301d | LinusB | $15M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,354 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 301d | brownacorn | $15M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,141 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 301d | brownacorn | $50M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,863 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 301d | 99c2 fills | $25M | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,043 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 301d |  bau7 | $8M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 301d |  Istaroth | $15M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,359 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 301d |  DogsInPools | $8M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,691 | +$43 +1.6% | 2 |
| 301d | sweetenthepot | $25M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 301d |  NZProphet | $15M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,055 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 301d | lejcles2 fills | $15M | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,836 | +$17 +0.1% | 2 |
| 301d | lejcles6 fills | $50M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $43,828 | +$244 +0.6% | 2 |
| 301d | lejcles7 fills | $25M | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $23,216 | +$1,614 +7.0% | 2 |
| 301d | brownacorn | $15M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,122 | +$11 +1.0% | 2 |
| 301d | brownacorn2 fills | $100M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,732 | −$32 −1.2% | — |
| 301d | MUFAi2 fills | $100M | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,114 | +$10 +0.1% | 2 |
| 301d | Kyoraku | $25M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$26 +1.3% | 2 |
| 301d | MUFAi | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,934 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 302d | Muskk | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 303d | lejcles3 fills | $100M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,407 | +$30 +0.6% | 2 |
| 303d | brownacorn2 fills | $100M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,027 | +$65 +2.1% | 2 |
| 303d | imjustalarp | $25M | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,111 | −$259 −12% | — |
| 303d |  BullfrogTIC | $50M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,623 | +$48 +3.0% | 2 |
| 303d | imjustalarp | $50M | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,164 | −$36 −3.1% | — |
| 303d |  Higherliquid | $25M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,998 | +$263 +5.3% | 2 |
| 312d | joyjoyjoyz | $100M | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,457 | −$59 −4.0% | — |
| 317d | brownacorn2 fills | $50M | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,633 | +$110 +4.2% | 2 |
| 318d | joyjoyjoyz | $100M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$15 +1.0% | 2 |
| 319d |  sophierainn | $50M | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,066 | −$84 −7.9% | — |
| 321d | ABonhl | $25M | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$915 +44% | 2 |
| 321d | imjustalarp | $50M | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$287 +11% | 2 |
| 324d | antonhouse | $25M | BuyYes37¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 2 |
| 325d | ushofasd | $25M | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,292 | +$431 +33% | 2 |
Festka3,011 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Harmonix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Harmonix (https://x.com/harmonixfi) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for $25M means the market gives it about 0%.