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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 5 | 0% | — | −65 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 17 | 100% | +23 pts | +17 pts | 93¢ · 93¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| August 8 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 11 | 100% | +2 pts | +90 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 24 | 100% | +82 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 26 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 9 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 28 | 0% | −6 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 15 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 24 | 100% | +13 pts | +95 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| August 14 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 21 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 29 | 0% | −1 pts | −51 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| August 25 | 0% | −5 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 4 | 100% | +40 pts | +80 pts | 87¢ · 96¢ (9¢) | — | ended |
| August 31 | 0% | −2 pts | −12 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| August 20 | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 3 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 16 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 6 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| August 19 | 0% | −5 pts | −5 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| August 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 18 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| August 2 | 0% | −1 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 30 | 0% | −2 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 23 | 0% | −4 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 1 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 12 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 27 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| August 10 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 25 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 26 | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 7 | 0% | −2 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 29 | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 27 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 13 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 22 | 0% | +2 pts | −4 pts | <1¢ · 10¢ (9¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35d | August 17 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,746 | +$23 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 55d | August 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,201 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 | |
| 67d | August 5 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,756 | −$3 −0.1% | — | |
| 67d | 033033033 | August 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,691 | +$12 +0.2% | 4 |
| 68d | August 8 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,008 | +$20 +1.0% | 4 | |
| 68d | thoodr | August 8 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$12 +1.0% | 4 |
| 68d | August 9 | BuyYes94¢ → 0¢ | $1,033 | −$1,033 −100% | 6 | |
| 70d | August 8 | BuyYes55¢ → 0¢ | $2,176 | −$2,176 −100% | 9 | |
| 74d | July 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,143 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 84d | July 24 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,514 | +$80 +3.2% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for August 5 means the market gives it about 0%.