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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200M | 0% | −4 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $400M | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $600M | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $800M | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $1.2B | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $1B | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $1.4B | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 267d | ExDeus | $200M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,488 | +$12 +0.8% | 2 |
| 267d | feika | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,242 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 267d | EricaXBT | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,115 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 267d | gydmasg | $400M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,177 | +$7 +0.6% | 2 |
| 267d | omegonx | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,232 | +$9 +0.4% | 2 |
| 267d |  inrvoice | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$8 +0.4% | 2 |
| 267d | inrvoice | $200M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,322 | +$41 +3.1% | 2 |
| 267d |  SOLinvestigator | $600M | BuyNo100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 2 |
| 267d | omegonx | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,085 | +$6 +0.3% | 2 |
| 267d | EricaXBT | $1.2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,595 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 268d | rusgreat | $800M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | +$10 +0.7% | 2 |
| 268d |  chenqiang | $400M | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,081 | −$21 −1.9% | — |
| 268d | spacegliderr2 fills | $400M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,425 | +$92 +2.7% | 2 |
| 268d |  musiepon | $200M | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,333 | +$254 +19% | 2 |
| 268d | 0x15ce9A512F0d4475ABb6DbA71ae702E2Dc1703 | $1B | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | +$19 +1.5% | 2 |
| 269d | wangnium | $1.4B | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,454 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 269d | 0x15ce9A512F0d4475ABb6DbA71ae702E2Dc1703 | $1.2B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | +$10 +1.0% | 2 |
| 269d | yomayo2 fills | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,221 | +$27 +1.2% | 2 |
| 269d | jimmyhasballs2 fills | $600M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,992 | +$177 +2.2% | 2 |
| 270d | jimmyhasballs | $1.2B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$18 +1.2% | 2 |
| 270d | yomayo | $1.2B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | +$15 +1.4% | 2 |
| 280d |  Napeeer | $400M | SellNo56¢ → 100¢ | $2,115 | −$1,662 −79% | — |
| 280d | Napeeer | $400M | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $3,173 | +$604 +19% | 2 |
| 280d |  PERODUA | $600M | SellNo62¢ → 100¢ | $2,233 | −$1,368 −61% | — |
| 280d | PERODUA | $600M | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,241 | +$360 +11% | 2 |
| 280d |  Tompou | $400M | SellNo52¢ → 100¢ | $1,103 | −$1,019 −92% | — |
| 280d | Tompou | $400M | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,910 | +$212 +11% | 2 |
| 280d |  VenomSuShi | $800M | SellNo66¢ → 100¢ | $3,653 | −$1,882 −52% | — |
| 280d | VenomSuShi | $800M | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,148 | +$387 +7.5% | 2 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Immunefi's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Immunefi doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for $200M means the market gives it about 0%.