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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $100M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $200M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $300M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $500M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $800M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $1B | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $150M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 211d |  circuscircus | $100M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,469 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 211d | PainStealer | $100M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,677 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 211d |  ChoosePoverty | $100M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,806 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 211d | Xzzzzz | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,519 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 211d | Xzzzzz | $150M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,987 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 211d |  Infringe4 fills | $100M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $9,913 | +$529 +5.3% | 2 |
| 211d | Dungak0610 | $100M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,542 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 211d | r888 | $100M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,772 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 211d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c32 fills | $100M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $7,449 | +$391 +5.2% | 2 |
| 211d |  DiamondHands11 | $100M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,740 | +$270 +3.1% | 2 |
| 211d | Xzzzzz | $150M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,987 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 211d | Xzzzzz | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,519 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 211d |  TTokin | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 211d | WTETH | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,148 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 211d | JAMTICH | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,453 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 211d |  4threich | $150M | BuyNo100¢ | $1,400 | +$7 +0.5% | 2 |
| 211d | LPTrader | $100M | SellYes44¢ → 0¢ | $2,974 | +$2,974 +100% | — |
| 212d | Thirsty-Proofreader | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,119 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 212d | ruyi666 | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $3,271 | −$10 −0.3% | — |
| 212d |  IlliterateTrader | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,834 | +$6 +0.3% | 2 |
| 212d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,001 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 212d | Overthinking2 fills | $200M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,070 | +$78 +1.9% | 2 |
| 212d | longtai | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,063 | +$3 +0.3% | 2 |
| 212d |  KRISSA69 | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,126 | +$3 +0.3% | 2 |
| 212d | KRISSA69 | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,533 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 212d |  toohorny | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,165 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 212d | kolou55 | $50M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 212d | lichenglicheng | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,805 | +$14 +0.2% | 2 |
| 212d | 02041992 | $150M | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,105 | −$34 −1.6% | — |
| 212d |  ke1pie | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,643 | +$7 +0.4% | 2 |
| 212d | amazin1ng | $100M | SellNo40¢ → 100¢ | $1,424 | −$2,176 −153% | — |
| 212d | tianxia123 | $100M | SellYes47¢ → 0¢ | $1,612 | +$1,612 +100% | — |
| 212d | xx.eth | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $5,310 | −$21 −0.4% | — |
| 212d | Anonretard | $200M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,192 | +$8 +0.7% | 2 |
| 212d | jetLLLLLLLL | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,742 | +$7 +0.2% | 2 |
| 212d | eva1001 | $100M | SellYes62¢ → 0¢ | $3,933 | +$3,933 +100% | — |
| 212d | secondpoorest | $200M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,746 | +$18 +1.0% | 2 |
| 212d |  elon2000 | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,742 | +$7 +0.4% | 2 |
| 212d | wowdontrug | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,656 | +$7 +0.4% | 2 |
| 212d |  SnitchingRat | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,708 | +$7 +0.4% | 2 |
| 212d |  0xRacist | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,565 | +$6 +0.4% | 2 |
| 212d |  swimmingtoriches | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,066 | +$4 +0.4% | 2 |
| 212d |  OptimusBot | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,429 | +$6 +0.4% | 2 |
| 212d | hellodi | $100M | SellYes75¢ → 0¢ | $3,676 | +$3,676 +100% | — |
| 212d | KURAKAO | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,411 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 212d | lontou | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,183 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 |
| 212d | lontou | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,857 | +$32 +0.8% | 2 |
| 212d | onekey092 fills | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,279 | +$11 +0.1% | 2 |
| 213d | 0xSensei | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 213d |  EleveResearch | $100M | SellYes67¢ → 0¢ | $4,037 | +$4,037 +100% | — |
| 213d | xx.eth | $100M | SellYes70¢ → 0¢ | $2,376 | +$2,376 +100% | — |
| 213d | Ready-Duckling | $200M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,554 | +$82 +5.3% | 2 |
| 213d | 1881aa2 fills | $50M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,696 | +$37 +1.0% | 2 |
| 213d | onekey09 | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,737 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 213d |  predict000r | $200M | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | +$96 +8.7% | 2 |
| 213d | muzhii | $50M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,261 | +$19 +1.5% | 2 |
| 213d | rusgreat2 fills | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,954 | +$10 +0.2% | 2 |
| 213d | yulen2 fills | $300M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,640 | +$106 +1.9% | 2 |
| 213d | lexaman.eth | $300M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,168 | +$19 +1.6% | 2 |
| 213d | kevin-airdrop | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,154 | +$5 +0.4% | 2 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Katana's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Katana (https://x.com/katana) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $50M means the market gives it about 100%.