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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberals lead by 5% or more | 100% | +12 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Liberals lead by 0-1% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals lead by 1-2% | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals lead by 2-3% | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals lead by 3-4% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals lead by 4-5% | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Conservatives lead | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 564d | exposito | Conservatives lead | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,647 | +$47 +1.0% | 10 |
| 565d | Spectating | Liberals lead by 2-3% | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,156 | +$237 +20% | 11 |
This is a market on the CBCNews Polling Average margin between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party as of April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines located on the line graph at https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada. Changes in the methodology by which CBCNews calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the CBCNews Polling Average margin data between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party is not available as of April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, the last published data will be used. If CBCNews polling becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published data.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Liberals lead by 5% or more means the market gives it about 100%.