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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December | 100% | +8 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January | 0% | −9 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March or later | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 666d | Ordon | December | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 666d |  MMousse2 fills | February | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,614 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 667d |  88888LUCKY88888 | March or later | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,281 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 667d |  456ythgbvcadscvb2 fills | March or later | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,509 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 667d | cigarettes | February | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 667d | cigarettes | March or later | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 667d |  starbuck02 | December | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
This is a negrisk market group over within what month Luigi Mangione will be extradited to New York.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December means the market gives it about 100%.