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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 660d | TheBoyBilly... | Megaquake in December? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,917 | +$121 +1.2% | 4 |
| 661d | 3r3rsdfs2 fills | Megaquake in December? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,053 | +$174 +3.4% | 4 |
| 662d |  starbuck02 | Megaquake in December? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | +$23 +2.1% | 4 |
| 664d |  Reini1860 | Megaquake in December? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,326 | +$94 +4.1% | 4 |
| 666d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly2 fills | Megaquake in December? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $10,003 | +$697 +7.0% | 4 |
| 667d |  Debosnys | Megaquake in December? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $6,195 | +$417 +6.7% | 4 |
| 667d | ExhaustedBoyBilly2 fills | Megaquake in December? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,441 | −$345 −6.3% | — |
| 667d | tehkobra | Megaquake in December? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,155 | +$72 +6.3% | 4 |
| 668d | Frozencomet | Megaquake in December? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | +$69 +4.6% | 4 |
| 668d |  throwawaylien2 fills | Megaquake in December? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,045 | +$138 +4.5% | 4 |
| 669d |  McDonalds-Employee4 fills | Megaquake in December? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $16,661 | −$901 −5.4% | — |
| 678d | yuv1410 | Megaquake in December? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,372 | −$103 −7.5% | — |
| 680d | McDonalds-Employee3 fills | Megaquake in December? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $13,169 | +$841 +6.4% | 4 |
| 683d |  lranon | Megaquake in December? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$120 +6.4% | 4 |
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between December 2 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.