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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200M | 100% | +14 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| $300M | 0% | −47 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $100M | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| $700M | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $50M | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| $400M | 0% | −20 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $600M | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $500M | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260d | K212 | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,088 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 260d |  IlliterateTrader | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,343 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 260d | Ronty | $400M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,237 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 260d | trader-8edfc7b0 | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,200 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 260d | GodPlsSaveMe | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,218 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 260d |  jieu | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,794 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 260d |  24Maty24 | $400M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,758 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 260d | 1337zzz1337 | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,459 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 260d | C03B | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,004 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 260d | dotheoppositeofme | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $6,515 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 260d | rovad | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,334 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 260d | rovad | $400M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,414 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 260d | plantostar | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,009 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 260d | C03B | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,025 | +$16 +0.1% | 2 |
| 260d | Hpp3 | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 |
| 260d | Laurenman | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,362 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 260d |  DedushkaSol | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 260d | Sfffd | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,198 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 260d |  yataros | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,161 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 260d | Laurenman | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,735 | +$7 +0.4% | 2 |
| 260d | IlliterateTrader | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,342 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 260d |  500AndADream3 fills | $300M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,000 | +$198 +3.3% | 2 |
| 260d | zeccx2 fills | $100M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,697 | +$54 +0.9% | 2 |
| 260d | 99uihgg | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $4,573 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 260d | 99uihgg | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,662 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 260d |  goalone | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,662 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 260d |  upont2 fills | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,209 | +$18 +0.2% | 2 |
| 260d | upont | $200M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,700 | +$240 +2.8% | 2 |
| 260d |  bau72 fills | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $2,908 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 260d |  MeLowD | $300M | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,410 | −$29 −2.0% | — |
| 260d |  SheikhSilicon2 fills | $200M | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,993 | −$292 −9.8% | — |
| 260d | pokgaikid | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,274 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 260d | 1881aa | $200M | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | −$69 −5.8% | — |
| 260d |  ChetterHummin | $200M | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | −$60 −5.8% | — |
| 260d |  musiepon2 fills | $300M | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $2,188 | −$630 −29% | — |
| 260d | FreeWillyR | $200M | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,307 | +$248 +4.7% | 2 |
| 261d | GodPlsSaveMe | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,218 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d | wcdaidi | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,972 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d | bozotys2 fills | $200M | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,635 | +$403 +11% | 2 |
| 261d | bozotys2 fills | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,543 | +$14 +0.3% | 2 |
| 261d | bozotys3 fills | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,502 | +$55 +0.4% | 2 |
| 261d | zeccx2 fills | $400M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,217 | +$262 +5.0% | 2 |
| 261d | zeccx | $200M | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $2,527 | −$572 −23% | — |
| 261d | sir3829 | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,077 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d |  branson69 | $100M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,992 | +$14 +0.7% | 2 |
| 261d | wewillwinwinwin | $200M | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,036 | +$128 +12% | 2 |
| 261d | Limping-Committee | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,038 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 261d |  TAMALIE | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,504 | +$5 +0.3% | 2 |
| 261d | TAMALIE | $100M | BuyYes100¢ | $2,885 | +$14 +0.5% | 2 |
| 261d | bozotys | $500M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,762 | +$56 +2.0% | 2 |
| 261d | WTETH | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,192 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d | JAMTICH | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,300 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d | jieu | $500M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,755 | +$41 +2.3% | 2 |
| 261d | travaler | $400M | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,830 | +$157 +8.6% | 2 |
| 261d |  RippleLabs | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d |  YAMA111 | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,637 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d | chuddercheese | $200M | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$154 +7.7% | 2 |
| 261d |  KRISSA69 | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,444 | +$7 +0.3% | 2 |
| 261d | fgnyfj5 | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,866 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d | b3tm0re | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
GameOver17,371 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Moonbirds's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Moonbirds doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $200M means the market gives it about 100%.