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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Engagement in 2025 | 100% | +1 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 24 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 25 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 26 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 27 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 28 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 29 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 30 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 1 | 0% | −3 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 2 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 3 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 4 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 5 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 6 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 7 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 8 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 9 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 10 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 11 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 12 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 13 | 0% | −3 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 14 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 16 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 17 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 18 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 19 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 20 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 21 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 22 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 23 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 24 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 25 | 0% | 0 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 26 | 0% | 0 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 27 | 0% | 0 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 28 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 29 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 30 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 289d | Ordon2 fills | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,027 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 289d | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,428 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 289d | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,213 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 289d | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 289d | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,407 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 289d | VvVv | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,850 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 289d | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,610 | +$224 +4.0% | 20 | |
| 290d | Idontwantausername3 fills | No Engagement in 2025 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,590 | −$168 −2.2% | — |
| 290d | Idontwantausername3 fills | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,344 | +$40 +0.9% | 20 |
| 290d | December 31 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,294 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 290d | rvx1 | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 290d | StudentMoney2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,360 | +$29 +0.9% | 20 |
| 290d | Idontwantausername | December 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,408 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | Idontwantausername | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,854 | −$234 −8.2% | — |
| 290d | Idontwantausername | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,982 | +$92 +3.1% | 20 |
| 290d | Abandoned-Counsel2 fills | December 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,396 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 290d | mmdgfhr | December 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,255 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 290d | brgdgre | December 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,144 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 290d | ugfbdgd | December 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,107 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 290d | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,120 | +$55 +1.3% | 20 | |
| 290d | onekey09 | December 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,651 | +$25 +0.2% | 20 |
| 290d | December 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,817 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 290d | ewsdgdh | December 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,251 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 290d | cdsgxhdh | December 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 290d | ydsghrds | December 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 291d | 0x9bdd…6da4 | No Engagement in 2025 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,895 | −$105 −5.5% | — |
| 291d | Idontwantausername2 fills | December 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,375 | +$37 +1.1% | 20 |
| 291d | Official-Piglet | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,306 | +$57 +4.3% | 21 |
| 291d | onekey09 | December 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,860 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 291d | December 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,265 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 291d | cdsgxhdh | December 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,220 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 291d | dube2 fills | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$281 +7.0% | 22 |
| 291d | trdffxgrer | December 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,203 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 291d | RDR2AM | No Engagement in 2025 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | −$296 −27% | — |
| 291d | alex562 | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,129 | +$239 +21% | 23 |
| 291d | ngggrah | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | +$229 +21% | 23 |
| 291d | 0x86ff…9440 | No Engagement in 2025 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,326 | −$449 −34% | — |
| 291d | alex562 | No Engagement in 2025 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $3,183 | −$632 −20% | — |
| 291d | gkjk | December 29 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,353 | +$39 +2.9% | 20 |
| 291d | StudentMoney | No Engagement in 2025 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,393 | −$217 −16% | — |
| 292d | 0x9bdd…6da4 | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,566 | +$160 +10% | 22 |
| 292d | yougotme | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,046 | +$226 +11% | 22 |
| 292d | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,158 | +$129 +11% | 22 | |
| 292d | No Engagement in 2025 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | −$180 −14% | — | |
| 292d | Lean-Pelt | December 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 292d | December 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,666 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 292d | Eatpraylove | No Engagement in 2025 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,367 | −$117 −8.6% | — |
| 292d | alliswell | No Engagement in 2025 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,801 | +$299 +7.9% | 21 |
| 292d | jjmenezj | December 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,145 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 292d | No Engagement in 2025 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,905 | −$210 −11% | — | |
| 293d | 688f32 | December 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,544 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 293d | wks168 | December 29 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,903 | +$17 +0.9% | 20 |
| 293d | December 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,717 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 293d | Thin-Print2 fills | December 27 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,844 | −$31 −0.3% | — |
| 293d | sylv13 | December 30 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,427 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 293d | sylv13 | December 28 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,980 | +$20 +0.5% | 20 |
| 293d | 688f32 | December 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,027 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 293d | December 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,012 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 293d | December 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,006 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 293d | December 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,003 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) of the next military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela. A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No Engagement in 2025 means the market gives it about 100%.