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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300M | 100% | +5 pts | +37 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $800M | 0% | −7 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 441d |
| $200M | 100% | +2 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $500M | 100% | +59 pts | +65 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $20M | 100% | +1 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $100M | 100% | +1 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $50M | 100% | +1 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 441d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 148d |  D3N1S | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 148d | latertrader | $500M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,113 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 148d |  cr1mean | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,225 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 148d | target100 | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,840 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 149d | ExDeus | $800M | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | +$47 +4.1% | 2 |
| 149d | 1881aa | $300M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | +$10 +1.0% | 2 |
| 149d | Tianhe | $200M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$28 +1.6% | 2 |
| 256d | TommyKFCV50 | $20M | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,005 | +$54 +5.3% | 2 |
| 258d |  MoneyChanger | $300M | BuyNo93¢ → 0¢ | $1,813 | −$1,813 −100% | 2 |
bollo87292 shares
PANKRATION200 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Nexus's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Nexus (https://x.com/NexusLabs) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $300M means the market gives it about 100%.