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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| María Corina Machado | 100% | +98 pts | +99 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Donald Trump | 0% | −6 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pope Leo XIV | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| European Union | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Julian Assange | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Marco Rubio | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Keir Starmer | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elon Musk | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| UNRWA | 0% | −4 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| António Guterres | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Zuriel Oduwole | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alexei Gorinov | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Chow Hang‑tung | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 0% | −9 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Volodymyr Zelensky | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Greta Thunberg | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 0% | −32 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) | 0% | −10 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mediterranean Sea Rescue organizations | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| International Court of Justice | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Person H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 372d |  t0uchdown | María Corina Machado | SellYes>99¢ | $1,104 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | DACIASandero | María Corina Machado | SellYes>99¢ | $1,453 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | 0x814293183 | María Corina Machado | SellYes>99¢ | $3,517 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  HerlihyM92 | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $15,984 | −$16 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  basedcigany2 fills | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $34,965 | −$35 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | pierrolefou2 fills | Donald Trump | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,425 | −$178 −1.9% | — |
| 372d | redberry | Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) | SellNo>99¢ | $1,354 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | BMTH | María Corina Machado | SellYes>99¢ | $5,842 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  DoneWithIt | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $6,393 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  DDDASHEE | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  FrancisSP8 | Donald Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,102 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d |  BloodyMummer | Donald Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,385 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d | oVyg7f | Donald Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,356 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d | ganatalak3 fills | Donald Trump | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,951 | −$270 −2.7% | — |
| 372d | Grega | María Corina Machado | SellYes>99¢ | $3,334 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | Mizz98 | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $1,303 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  cynical-reason | María Corina Machado | SellYes>99¢ | $7,205 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $42,263 | −$42 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  meowmers | María Corina Machado | SellYes>99¢ | $1,130 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | 9W57 | María Corina Machado | SellYes>99¢ | $3,987 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | gollumen | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $26,605 | −$53 −0.2% | — |
| 372d |  Opal6000 | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $1,093 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  10Bfakemerchant | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $1,557 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | gulliblebettor | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $7,044 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  adonpoli | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | loord | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $2,547 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | notinsider001 | María Corina Machado | SellYes>99¢ | $1,587 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | 0xafEe2 | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $4,416 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  anon42069 | María Corina Machado | SellYes>99¢ | $1,445 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  cubsy | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 372d | Rainfield | María Corina Machado | SellYes>99¢ | $1,161 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 372d |  Flipadelphia | Volodymyr Zelensky | BuyNo>99¢ | $93,324 | +$93 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d | GondorCallsForAid | Chow Hang‑tung | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,845 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d | AlexanderTheBait | Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,013 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d | DDDASHEE2 fills | Donald Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d | Abandoned-Counsel14 fills | Donald Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,308 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d | Jest55 | International Court of Justice | BuyNo100¢ | $5,035 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 372d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | María Corina Machado | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,144 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d | DDDASHEE | María Corina Machado | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d | limosine2 fills | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $7,352 | −$23 −0.3% | — |
| 372d |  1sk | Yulia Navalnaya | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d | GondorCallsForAid | António Guterres | BuyNo100¢ | $4,907 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 372d |  RockyZet | Donald Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,120 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d | zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz | María Corina Machado | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,199 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 372d |  bosshog | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,427 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 372d |  aenews24 fills | María Corina Machado | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $15,675 | +$4,592 +29% | 20 |
| 372d | Complete-AbundanceNew account | María Corina Machado | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,693 | +$48 +1.8% | 21 |
| 372d |  noreasapa | Donald Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $41,459 | +$42 +0.1% | 20 |
| 372d |  occasionalAwareness2 fills | Donald Trump | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $30,409 | +$1,161 +3.8% | 21 |
| 372d | 1sk2 fills | Donald Trump | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,374 | +$100 +2.3% | 21 |
| 372d | rwo | Donald Trump | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $29,359 | +$360 +1.2% | 20 |
| 372d | Avantgard | María Corina Machado | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $6,687 | +$2,338 +35% | 20 |
| 372d | cynical-reason2 fills | Donald Trump | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $77,384 | +$4,609 +6.0% | 21 |
| 372d | xhinra379 fills | María Corina Machado | BuyYes61¢ → 100¢ | $47,806 | +$30,489 +64% | 20 |
| 372d |  STDgambler | Donald Trump | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,930 | −$70 −3.6% | — |
| 372d | Lesliecyh3 | Donald Trump | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | −$38 −3.5% | — |
| 372d | esac5 fills | Donald Trump | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,737 | +$296 +3.0% | 20 |
| 372d |  JJo | Donald Trump | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,448 | +$152 +3.4% | 20 |
| 372d | BobbyB2 fills | Donald Trump | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,128 | +$75 +3.5% | 20 |
| 372d | torje | Donald Trump | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,989 | +$257 +2.6% | 20 |
SwampRat20,000 shares
094317,385 sharesThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky, Elon Musk, Pope Leo XIII, or Yulia Navalnaya are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them, in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners, and the prize is awarded jointly to a listed individual and a listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners, and all recipients are of the same type (e.g. all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for María Corina Machado means the market gives it about 100%.