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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 0% | +2 pts | +2 pts | 11¢ · 12¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Before 2027 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | 17¢ · 20¢ (3¢) | — | in 74d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 227d |  rangaaa | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,606 | +$123 +4.7% | 4 |
| 227d |  Occidentaliste | June 30 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,668 | +$231 +14% | 4 |
| 228d | someone2026 | June 30 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $10,076 | +$1,640 +16% | 4 |
| 228d |  Oompa-Loompa | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,704 | +$95 +5.6% | 4 |
| 228d |  WojakBlowjak | March 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $9,429 | +$571 +6.1% | 4 |
| 228d |  SupremeLeader12 | March 31 | BuyYes7¢ → 0¢ | $2,908 | −$2,908 −100% | 12 |
| 228d |  MisTKy | March 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,137 | +$73 +6.4% | 4 |
| 228d | unseenfire5 | March 31 | BuyYes6¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 5 |
| 229d | Untried-BreathNew account | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,793 | +$234 +4.9% | 6 |
| 229d | EmbraceChaos | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,723 | +$144 +5.3% | 4 |
| 229d | Tenk1994 | June 30 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $19,721 | +$1,979 +10% | 4 |
| 229d | 0x071b…d08d | March 31 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,385 | −$262 −7.7% | — |
| 230d |  blindmaninanorgy | June 30 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $3,074 | +$459 +15% | 4 |
| 230d | blindmaninanorgy5 fills | March 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,021 | +$512 +4.6% | 4 |
| 230d | 0x071b…d08d2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,426 | +$220 +6.4% | 4 |
| 233d | Eatpraylove2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,152 | +$201 +3.9% | 4 |
| 234d | LBZone | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | +$38 +3.4% | 4 |
| 238d | selador | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,937 | +$63 +3.2% | 4 |
| 241d |  ChetterHummin | June 30 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | +$150 +11% | 4 |
| 241d | anciano | June 30 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,263 | +$95 +7.5% | 4 |
| 244d | madman666 | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,948 | +$52 +2.7% | 4 |
| 249d | iamkingofbay | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$49 +3.5% | 4 |
| 254d | nangongyingque | June 30 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,832 | −$205 −7.2% | — |
| 257d | nangongyingque | March 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,768 | −$88 −2.3% | — |
| 259d | Excitable-Chorus | June 30 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,404 | +$90 +6.4% | 4 |
| 271d |  ASteroide | June 30 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,135 | −$91 −8.1% | — |
| 280d | NeH | Before 2027 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $7,577 | +$1,033 +14% | 4 |
| 283d | momo513 | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,751 | +$86 +4.9% | 4 |
| 284d | ASteroide | March 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$86 +4.3% | 4 |
| 286d | ASteroide2 fills | June 30 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $5,279 | +$948 +18% | 4 |
| 286d | George3d6 | Before 2027 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | −$204 −20% | — |
| 287d | wttg | June 30 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$396 +9.9% | 4 |
| 287d | momo5133 fills | June 30 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $7,520 | +$755 +10% | 4 |
| 287d | momo513 | Before 2027 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $6,396 | +$1,310 +20% | 4 |
| 289d | nangongyingque2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,667 | +$189 +5.1% | 4 |
| 313d | nangongyingque | June 30 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,681 | +$298 +11% | 4 |
Jonatha.n22 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between November 5, 2025 ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for June 30 means the market gives it about 0%.